Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
50.59%
Fair Odds 1.98
Draw
27.53%
Fair Odds 3.63
Away Win
21.87%
Fair Odds 4.57
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 13.43% Fair Odds 7.45

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.98 —
Draw 3.63 —
Away Win 4.57 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 13.43% 7.45
2 1-1 12.22% 8.18
3 2-0 10.14% 9.86
4 2-1 9.23% 10.84
5 0-0 8.89% 11.25
6 0-1 8.09% 12.36
7 1-2 5.56% 17.99
8 3-0 5.1% 19.6
9 3-1 4.64% 21.54
10 2-2 4.2% 23.82
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.89%
11.25
8.09%
12.36
3.68%
27.16
1.12%
89.54
0.25%
393.55
0.05%
2164.5
1
13.43%
7.45
12.22%
8.18
5.56%
17.99
1.69%
59.3
0.38%
260.62
0.07%
1432.66
2
10.14%
9.86
9.23%
10.84
4.2%
23.82
1.27%
78.54
0.29%
345.18
0.05%
1897.53
3
5.1%
19.6
4.64%
21.54
2.11%
47.33
0.64%
156.03
0.15%
685.87
0.03%
3773.58
4
1.93%
51.92
1.75%
57.05
0.8%
125.39
0.24%
413.39
0.06%
1818.18
0.01%
10000.0
5
0.58%
171.91
0.53%
188.89
0.24%
415.11
0.07%
1367.99
0.02%
6024.1
0.0%
33333.33
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.5% · Fair: 201.53
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 77.91% 22.09%
1.5 44.55% 55.45%
2.5 19.37% 80.63%
3.5 6.69% 93.31%
4.5 1.9% 98.09%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 59.75% 40.25%
1.5 23.12% 76.88%
2.5 6.45% 93.55%
3.5 1.4% 98.6%
4.5 0.25% 99.75%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.89% 11.25
1 21.52% 4.65
2 26.04% 3.84
3 21.00% 4.76
4 12.71% 7.87
5+ 9.84% 10.16
Over 2.5 43.55% Under 2.5 56.45%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 50.59%
Draw 27.53%
Away Win 21.87%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 43.55%
Under 2.5 56.45%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 46.55%
No 53.45%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.59% 9.44 15.66% 6.39 73.76% 1.36
-1.5 26.24% 3.81 — 73.76% 1.36
-1.0 26.24% 3.81 25.02% 4.0 48.73% 2.05
-0.5 51.27% 1.95 — 48.73% 2.05
0 (PK) 51.27% 1.95 26.01% 3.85 22.72% 4.4
+0.5 77.28% 1.29 — 22.72% 4.4
+1.0 77.28% 1.29 15.08% 6.63 7.64% 13.08
+1.5 92.36% 1.08 — 7.64% 13.08
+2.0 92.36% 1.08 5.69% 17.59 1.96% 51.09

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.