Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
54.28%
Fair Odds 1.84
Draw
25.98%
Fair Odds 3.85
Away Win
19.73%
Fair Odds 5.07
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 12.88% Fair Odds 7.76

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.84 —
Draw 3.85 —
Away Win 5.07 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 12.88% 7.76
2 1-1 11.6% 8.62
3 2-0 10.63% 9.41
4 2-1 9.57% 10.45
5 0-0 7.81% 12.81
6 0-1 7.03% 14.23
7 3-0 5.85% 17.11
8 3-1 5.26% 19.01
9 1-2 5.22% 19.17
10 2-2 4.3% 23.23
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.81%
12.81
7.03%
14.23
3.16%
31.62
0.95%
105.41
0.21%
468.38
0.04%
2604.17
1
12.88%
7.76
11.6%
8.62
5.22%
19.17
1.57%
63.89
0.35%
283.93
0.06%
1577.29
2
10.63%
9.41
9.57%
10.45
4.3%
23.23
1.29%
77.44
0.29%
344.12
0.05%
1912.05
3
5.85%
17.11
5.26%
19.01
2.37%
42.24
0.71%
140.79
0.16%
625.78
0.03%
3472.22
4
2.41%
41.47
2.17%
46.08
0.98%
102.4
0.29%
341.3
0.07%
1517.45
0.01%
8403.36
5
0.8%
125.66
0.72%
139.63
0.32%
310.27
0.1%
1034.13
0.02%
4587.16
0.0%
25641.03
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.73% · Fair: 136.84
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 80.79% 19.2%
1.5 49.11% 50.89%
2.5 22.96% 77.04%
3.5 8.59% 91.41%
4.5 2.65% 97.35%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 59.34% 40.66%
1.5 22.75% 77.25%
2.5 6.29% 93.71%
3.5 1.35% 98.65%
4.5 0.23% 99.77%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.81% 12.81
1 19.91% 5.02
2 25.39% 3.94
3 21.58% 4.63
4 13.76% 7.27
5+ 11.56% 8.65
Over 2.5 46.89% Under 2.5 53.11%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 54.28%
Draw 25.98%
Away Win 19.73%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 46.89%
Under 2.5 53.11%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 47.95%
No 52.05%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 12.95% 7.72 16.97% 5.89 70.08% 1.43
-1.5 29.92% 3.34 — 70.08% 1.43
-1.0 29.92% 3.34 25.13% 3.98 44.95% 2.22
-0.5 55.05% 1.82 — 44.95% 2.22
0 (PK) 55.05% 1.82 24.49% 4.08 20.46% 4.89
+0.5 79.54% 1.26 — 20.46% 4.89
+1.0 79.54% 1.26 13.71% 7.29 6.75% 14.82
+1.5 93.25% 1.07 — 6.75% 14.82
+2.0 93.25% 1.07 5.05% 19.81 1.7% 58.82

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.