Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
42.79%
Fair Odds 2.34
Draw
30.96%
Fair Odds 3.23
Away Win
26.25%
Fair Odds 3.81
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 14.67% Fair Odds 6.82

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.34 —
Draw 3.23 —
Away Win 3.81 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 14.67% 6.82
2 1-1 13.2% 7.57
3 0-0 12.12% 8.25
4 0-1 10.91% 9.16
5 2-0 8.88% 11.27
6 2-1 7.99% 12.52
7 1-2 5.94% 16.83
8 0-2 4.91% 20.37
9 2-2 3.59% 27.82
10 3-0 3.58% 27.94
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
12.12%
8.25
10.91%
9.16
4.91%
20.37
1.47%
67.89
0.33%
301.75
0.06%
1675.04
1
14.67%
6.82
13.2%
7.57
5.94%
16.83
1.78%
56.1
0.4%
249.38
0.07%
1385.04
2
8.88%
11.27
7.99%
12.52
3.59%
27.82
1.08%
92.74
0.24%
412.2
0.04%
2288.33
3
3.58%
27.94
3.22%
31.04
1.45%
68.98
0.43%
229.94
0.1%
1021.45
0.02%
5681.82
4
1.08%
92.34
0.97%
102.61
0.44%
228.0
0.13%
759.88
0.03%
3378.38
0.01%
18867.92
5
0.26%
381.53
0.24%
424.09
0.11%
942.51
0.03%
3144.65
0.01%
13888.89
0.0%
76923.08
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.19% · Fair: 524.66
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 70.18% 29.82%
1.5 34.1% 65.9%
2.5 12.27% 87.73%
3.5 3.46% 96.54%
4.5 0.8% 99.2%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 59.34% 40.66%
1.5 22.75% 77.25%
2.5 6.29% 93.71%
3.5 1.35% 98.65%
4.5 0.23% 99.77%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 12.12% 8.25
1 25.58% 3.91
2 26.99% 3.71
3 18.98% 5.27
4 10.01% 9.99
5+ 6.31% 15.84
Over 2.5 35.31% Under 2.5 64.69%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 42.79%
Draw 30.96%
Away Win 26.25%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 35.31%
Under 2.5 64.69%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 41.65%
No 58.35%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.4% 15.64 12.57% 7.96 81.04% 1.23
-1.5 18.96% 5.27 — 81.04% 1.23
-1.0 18.96% 5.27 24.25% 4.12 56.79% 1.76
-0.5 43.21% 2.31 — 56.79% 1.76
0 (PK) 43.21% 2.31 29.39% 3.4 27.4% 3.65
+0.5 72.6% 1.38 — 27.4% 3.65
+1.0 72.6% 1.38 18.03% 5.54 9.37% 10.67
+1.5 90.63% 1.1 — 9.37% 10.67
+2.0 90.63% 1.1 6.95% 14.38 2.41% 41.42

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.