Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
37.24%
Fair Odds 2.69
Draw
33.13%
Fair Odds 3.02
Away Win
29.63%
Fair Odds 3.37
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 14.95% Fair Odds 6.69

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.69 —
Draw 3.02 —
Away Win 3.37 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 14.95% 6.69
2 0-0 14.66% 6.82
3 1-1 13.46% 7.43
4 0-1 13.19% 7.58
5 2-0 7.63% 13.11
6 2-1 6.86% 14.57
7 1-2 6.06% 16.51
8 0-2 5.94% 16.84
9 2-2 3.09% 32.38
10 3-0 2.59% 38.57
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
14.66%
6.82
13.19%
7.58
5.94%
16.84
1.78%
56.14
0.4%
249.5
0.07%
1386.96
1
14.95%
6.69
13.46%
7.43
6.06%
16.51
1.82%
55.04
0.41%
244.62
0.07%
1358.7
2
7.63%
13.11
6.86%
14.57
3.09%
32.38
0.93%
107.92
0.21%
479.62
0.04%
2666.67
3
2.59%
38.57
2.33%
42.85
1.05%
95.22
0.32%
317.36
0.07%
1410.44
0.01%
7812.5
4
0.66%
151.24
0.6%
168.04
0.27%
373.41
0.08%
1245.33
0.02%
5524.86
0.0%
30303.03
5
0.13%
741.29
0.12%
823.72
0.05%
1831.5
0.02%
6097.56
0.0%
27027.03
0.0%
142857.14
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.1% · Fair: 999.0
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 63.94% 36.06%
1.5 27.16% 72.84%
2.5 8.4% 91.6%
3.5 2.02% 97.98%
4.5 0.4% 99.6%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 59.34% 40.66%
1.5 22.75% 77.25%
2.5 6.29% 93.71%
3.5 1.35% 98.65%
4.5 0.23% 99.77%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 14.66% 6.82
1 28.15% 3.55
2 27.02% 3.70
3 17.29% 5.78
4 8.30% 12.05
5+ 4.57% 21.87
Over 2.5 30.17% Under 2.5 69.83%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 37.24%
Draw 33.13%
Away Win 29.63%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 30.17%
Under 2.5 69.83%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 37.94%
No 62.06%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.23% 23.67 10.25% 9.76 85.53% 1.17
-1.5 14.47% 6.91 — 85.53% 1.17
-1.0 14.47% 6.91 22.95% 4.36 62.58% 1.6
-0.5 37.42% 2.67 — 62.58% 1.6
0 (PK) 37.42% 2.67 31.54% 3.17 31.04% 3.22
+0.5 68.96% 1.45 — 31.04% 3.22
+1.0 68.96% 1.45 20.25% 4.94 10.78% 9.27
+1.5 89.22% 1.12 — 10.78% 9.27
+2.0 89.22% 1.12 7.98% 12.54 2.81% 35.61

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.