Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
20.62%
Fair Odds 4.85
Draw
38.05%
Fair Odds 2.63
Away Win
41.32%
Fair Odds 2.42
Most Likely Score
0 - 0
Probability 23.22% Fair Odds 4.31

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 4.85 —
Draw 2.63 —
Away Win 2.42 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-0 23.22% 4.31
2 0-1 20.9% 4.78
3 1-0 13.01% 7.69
4 1-1 11.7% 8.54
5 0-2 9.41% 10.63
6 1-2 5.27% 18.99
7 2-0 3.64% 27.46
8 2-1 3.28% 30.51
9 0-3 2.82% 35.44
10 1-3 1.58% 63.29
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
23.22%
4.31
20.9%
4.78
9.41%
10.63
2.82%
35.44
0.63%
157.51
0.11%
874.89
1
13.01%
7.69
11.7%
8.54
5.27%
18.99
1.58%
63.29
0.36%
281.29
0.06%
1562.5
2
3.64%
27.46
3.28%
30.51
1.47%
67.81
0.44%
226.04
0.1%
1005.03
0.02%
5586.59
3
0.68%
147.12
0.61%
163.45
0.28%
363.24
0.08%
1210.65
0.02%
5376.34
0.0%
30303.03
4
0.1%
1050.42
0.09%
1168.22
0.04%
2597.4
0.01%
8620.69
0.0%
38461.54
0.0%
200000.0
5
0.01%
9345.79
0.01%
10416.67
0.0%
23255.81
0.0%
76923.08
0.0%
333333.33
0.0%
1000000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.04% · Fair: 2702.7
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 42.88% 57.12%
1.5 10.89% 89.11%
2.5 1.93% 98.07%
3.5 0.26% 99.74%
4.5 0.03% 99.97%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 59.34% 40.66%
1.5 22.75% 77.25%
2.5 6.29% 93.71%
3.5 1.35% 98.65%
4.5 0.23% 99.77%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 23.22% 4.31
1 33.91% 2.95
2 24.75% 4.04
3 12.05% 8.30
4 4.40% 22.74
5+ 1.68% 59.69
Over 2.5 18.12% Under 2.5 81.88%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 20.62%
Draw 38.05%
Away Win 41.32%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 18.12%
Under 2.5 81.88%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 25.45%
No 74.55%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 0.89% 112.65 4.29% 23.29 94.82% 1.05
-1.5 5.18% 19.3 — 94.82% 1.05
-1.0 5.18% 19.3 16.57% 6.04 78.25% 1.28
-0.5 21.75% 4.6 — 78.25% 1.28
0 (PK) 21.75% 4.6 36.49% 2.74 41.76% 2.39
+0.5 58.24% 1.72 — 41.76% 2.39
+1.0 58.24% 1.72 26.63% 3.76 15.13% 6.61
+1.5 84.87% 1.18 — 15.13% 6.61
+2.0 84.87% 1.18 11.09% 9.02 4.04% 24.74

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.