Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
46.08%
Fair Odds 2.17
Draw
29.74%
Fair Odds 3.36
Away Win
24.18%
Fair Odds 4.14
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 14.48% Fair Odds 6.91

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.17 —
Draw 3.36 —
Away Win 4.14 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 14.48% 6.91
2 1-1 12.89% 7.76
3 0-0 10.97% 9.12
4 0-1 9.76% 10.24
5 2-0 9.56% 10.46
6 2-1 8.51% 11.76
7 1-2 5.73% 17.44
8 0-2 4.34% 23.02
9 3-0 4.21% 23.78
10 2-2 3.79% 26.42
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.97%
9.12
9.76%
10.24
4.34%
23.02
1.29%
77.59
0.29%
348.68
0.05%
1960.78
1
14.48%
6.91
12.89%
7.76
5.73%
17.44
1.7%
58.78
0.38%
264.13
0.07%
1483.68
2
9.56%
10.46
8.51%
11.76
3.79%
26.42
1.12%
89.06
0.25%
400.32
0.04%
2247.19
3
4.21%
23.78
3.74%
26.72
1.67%
60.05
0.49%
202.39
0.11%
909.92
0.02%
5102.04
4
1.39%
72.06
1.23%
80.97
0.55%
181.95
0.16%
613.5
0.04%
2754.82
0.01%
15384.62
5
0.37%
272.93
0.33%
306.65
0.15%
689.18
0.04%
2325.58
0.01%
10416.67
0.0%
58823.53
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.27% · Fair: 366.7
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 73.29% 26.71%
1.5 38.02% 61.98%
2.5 14.75% 85.25%
3.5 4.51% 95.49%
4.5 1.13% 98.87%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 58.93% 41.07%
1.5 22.39% 77.61%
2.5 6.12% 93.88%
3.5 1.3% 98.7%
4.5 0.22% 99.78%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 10.97% 9.12
1 24.24% 4.12
2 26.79% 3.73
3 19.73% 5.07
4 10.90% 9.17
5+ 7.36% 13.59
Over 2.5 38.0% Under 2.5 62.0%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 46.08%
Draw 29.74%
Away Win 24.18%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 38.0%
Under 2.5 62.0%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 43.19%
No 56.81%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.9% 12.65 13.89% 7.2 78.2% 1.28
-1.5 21.8% 4.59 — 78.2% 1.28
-1.0 21.8% 4.59 24.82% 4.03 53.38% 1.87
-0.5 46.62% 2.14 — 53.38% 1.87
0 (PK) 46.62% 2.14 28.17% 3.55 25.2% 3.97
+0.5 74.8% 1.34 — 25.2% 3.97
+1.0 74.8% 1.34 16.74% 5.97 8.46% 11.81
+1.5 91.54% 1.09 — 8.46% 11.81
+2.0 91.54% 1.09 6.32% 15.83 2.15% 46.55

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.