Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
42.17%
Fair Odds 2.37
Draw
31.36%
Fair Odds 3.19
Away Win
26.47%
Fair Odds 3.78
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 14.89% Fair Odds 6.72

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.37 —
Draw 3.19 —
Away Win 3.78 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 14.89% 6.72
2 1-1 13.25% 7.55
3 0-0 12.62% 7.92
4 0-1 11.23% 8.9
5 2-0 8.79% 11.38
6 2-1 7.82% 12.79
7 1-2 5.9% 16.96
8 0-2 5.0% 20.01
9 2-2 3.48% 28.74
10 3-0 3.46% 28.94
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
12.62%
7.92
11.23%
8.9
5.0%
20.01
1.48%
67.45
0.33%
303.12
0.06%
1703.58
1
14.89%
6.72
13.25%
7.55
5.9%
16.96
1.75%
57.16
0.39%
256.87
0.07%
1443.0
2
8.79%
11.38
7.82%
12.79
3.48%
28.74
1.03%
96.88
0.23%
435.35
0.04%
2444.99
3
3.46%
28.94
3.08%
32.52
1.37%
73.07
0.41%
246.31
0.09%
1107.42
0.02%
6211.18
4
1.02%
98.1
0.91%
110.23
0.4%
247.71
0.12%
834.72
0.03%
3759.4
0.0%
21276.6
5
0.24%
415.63
0.21%
467.07
0.1%
1049.32
0.03%
3533.57
0.01%
15873.02
0.0%
90909.09
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.17% · Fair: 587.89
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 69.27% 30.73%
1.5 33.01% 66.99%
2.5 11.62% 88.38%
3.5 3.21% 96.79%
4.5 0.72% 99.28%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 58.93% 41.07%
1.5 22.39% 77.61%
2.5 6.12% 93.88%
3.5 1.3% 98.7%
4.5 0.22% 99.78%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 12.62% 7.92
1 26.12% 3.83
2 27.03% 3.70
3 18.65% 5.36
4 9.65% 10.36
5+ 5.92% 16.90
Over 2.5 34.23% Under 2.5 65.77%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 42.17%
Draw 31.36%
Away Win 26.47%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 34.23%
Under 2.5 65.77%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 40.83%
No 59.17%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.07% 16.48 12.29% 8.13 81.64% 1.22
-1.5 18.36% 5.45 — 81.64% 1.22
-1.0 18.36% 5.45 24.2% 4.13 57.43% 1.74
-0.5 42.57% 2.35 — 57.43% 1.74
0 (PK) 42.57% 2.35 29.78% 3.36 27.65% 3.62
+0.5 72.35% 1.38 — 27.65% 3.62
+1.0 72.35% 1.38 18.26% 5.48 9.4% 10.64
+1.5 90.6% 1.1 — 9.4% 10.64
+2.0 90.6% 1.1 6.99% 14.3 2.4% 41.63

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.