Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
34.07%
Fair Odds 2.94
Draw
34.47%
Fair Odds 2.9
Away Win
31.46%
Fair Odds 3.18
Most Likely Score
0 - 0
Probability 16.53% Fair Odds 6.05

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.94 —
Draw 2.9 —
Away Win 3.18 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-0 16.53% 6.05
2 1-0 15.04% 6.65
3 0-1 14.71% 6.8
4 1-1 13.39% 7.47
5 2-0 6.84% 14.61
6 0-2 6.55% 15.27
7 2-1 6.09% 16.42
8 1-2 5.96% 16.79
9 2-2 2.71% 36.89
10 3-0 2.08% 48.17
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
16.53%
6.05
14.71%
6.8
6.55%
15.27
1.94%
51.49
0.43%
231.43
0.08%
1300.39
1
15.04%
6.65
13.39%
7.47
5.96%
16.79
1.77%
56.58
0.39%
254.32
0.07%
1428.57
2
6.84%
14.61
6.09%
16.42
2.71%
36.89
0.8%
124.35
0.18%
558.97
0.03%
3144.65
3
2.08%
48.17
1.85%
54.12
0.82%
121.62
0.24%
410.0
0.05%
1841.62
0.01%
10309.28
4
0.47%
211.73
0.42%
237.87
0.19%
534.47
0.06%
1801.8
0.01%
8130.08
0.0%
45454.55
5
0.09%
1162.79
0.08%
1307.19
0.03%
2941.18
0.01%
9900.99
0.0%
45454.55
0.0%
250000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.07% · Fair: 1453.49
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 59.75% 40.25%
1.5 23.12% 76.88%
2.5 6.45% 93.55%
3.5 1.4% 98.6%
4.5 0.25% 99.75%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 58.93% 41.07%
1.5 22.39% 77.61%
2.5 6.12% 93.88%
3.5 1.3% 98.7%
4.5 0.22% 99.78%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 16.53% 6.05
1 29.75% 3.36
2 26.78% 3.73
3 16.07% 6.22
4 7.23% 13.83
5+ 3.64% 27.47
Over 2.5 26.94% Under 2.5 73.06%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 34.07%
Draw 34.47%
Away Win 31.46%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 26.94%
Under 2.5 73.06%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 35.21%
No 64.79%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.2% 31.24 8.89% 11.25 87.91% 1.14
-1.5 12.09% 8.27 — 87.91% 1.14
-1.0 12.09% 8.27 22.01% 4.54 65.9% 1.52
-0.5 34.1% 2.93 — 65.9% 1.52
0 (PK) 34.1% 2.93 32.88% 3.04 33.01% 3.03
+0.5 66.99% 1.49 — 33.01% 3.03
+1.0 66.99% 1.49 21.53% 4.64 11.48% 8.71
+1.5 88.52% 1.13 — 11.48% 8.71
+2.0 88.52% 1.13 8.5% 11.76 2.98% 33.58

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.