Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
59.17%
Fair Odds 1.69
Draw
23.95%
Fair Odds 4.17
Away Win
16.88%
Fair Odds 5.92
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 12.3% Fair Odds 8.13

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.69 —
Draw 4.17 —
Away Win 5.92 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 12.3% 8.13
2 2-0 11.25% 8.89
3 1-1 10.7% 9.35
4 2-1 9.79% 10.21
5 3-0 6.86% 14.57
6 0-0 6.72% 14.88
7 3-1 5.97% 16.74
8 0-1 5.85% 17.1
9 1-2 4.65% 21.49
10 2-2 4.26% 23.48
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.72%
14.88
5.85%
17.1
2.54%
39.32
0.74%
135.57
0.16%
623.44
0.03%
3584.23
1
12.3%
8.13
10.7%
9.35
4.65%
21.49
1.35%
74.09
0.29%
340.6
0.05%
1956.95
2
11.25%
8.89
9.79%
10.21
4.26%
23.48
1.24%
80.97
0.27%
372.3
0.05%
2141.33
3
6.86%
14.57
5.97%
16.74
2.6%
38.49
0.75%
132.73
0.16%
610.13
0.03%
3508.77
4
3.14%
31.84
2.73%
36.6
1.19%
84.14
0.34%
290.11
0.07%
1333.33
0.01%
7692.31
5
1.15%
87.0
1.0%
100.0
0.43%
229.89
0.13%
793.02
0.03%
3649.64
0.0%
20833.33
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.15% · Fair: 87.25
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 83.96% 16.04%
1.5 54.6% 45.4%
2.5 27.74% 72.26%
3.5 11.36% 88.64%
4.5 3.86% 96.14%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 58.1% 41.9%
1.5 21.66% 78.34%
2.5 5.8% 94.2%
3.5 1.2% 98.8%
4.5 0.2% 99.8%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.72% 14.88
1 18.15% 5.51
2 24.50% 4.08
3 22.05% 4.54
4 14.88% 6.72
5+ 13.71% 7.29
Over 2.5 50.64% Under 2.5 49.36%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 59.17%
Draw 23.95%
Away Win 16.88%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 50.64%
Under 2.5 49.36%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 48.78%
No 51.22%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 16.43% 6.09 18.55% 5.39 65.02% 1.54
-1.5 34.98% 2.86 — 65.02% 1.54
-1.0 34.98% 2.86 25.06% 3.99 39.96% 2.5
-0.5 60.04% 1.67 — 39.96% 2.5
0 (PK) 60.04% 1.67 22.51% 4.44 17.45% 5.73
+0.5 82.55% 1.21 — 17.45% 5.73
+1.0 82.55% 1.21 11.91% 8.39 5.54% 18.07
+1.5 94.46% 1.06 — 5.54% 18.07
+2.0 94.46% 1.06 4.19% 23.85 1.34% 74.46

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.