Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
37.9%
Fair Odds 2.64
Draw
33.38%
Fair Odds 3.0
Away Win
28.72%
Fair Odds 3.48
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 15.41% Fair Odds 6.49

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.64 —
Draw 3.0 —
Away Win 3.48 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 15.41% 6.49
2 0-0 15.11% 6.62
3 1-1 13.41% 7.46
4 0-1 13.14% 7.61
5 2-0 7.86% 12.72
6 2-1 6.84% 14.63
7 1-2 5.83% 17.15
8 0-2 5.72% 17.49
9 2-2 2.97% 33.62
10 3-0 2.67% 37.43
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
15.11%
6.62
13.14%
7.61
5.72%
17.49
1.66%
60.31
0.36%
277.32
0.06%
1594.9
1
15.41%
6.49
13.41%
7.46
5.83%
17.15
1.69%
59.13
0.37%
271.89
0.06%
1562.5
2
7.86%
12.72
6.84%
14.63
2.97%
33.62
0.86%
115.94
0.19%
533.05
0.03%
3067.48
3
2.67%
37.43
2.32%
43.02
1.01%
98.89
0.29%
340.95
0.06%
1567.4
0.01%
9009.01
4
0.68%
146.76
0.59%
168.69
0.26%
387.75
0.07%
1336.9
0.02%
6134.97
0.0%
35714.29
5
0.14%
719.42
0.12%
827.13
0.05%
1901.14
0.02%
6535.95
0.0%
30303.03
0.0%
166666.67
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.09% · Fair: 1058.2
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 63.94% 36.06%
1.5 27.16% 72.84%
2.5 8.4% 91.6%
3.5 2.02% 97.98%
4.5 0.4% 99.6%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 58.1% 41.9%
1.5 21.66% 78.34%
2.5 5.8% 94.2%
3.5 1.2% 98.8%
4.5 0.2% 99.8%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 15.11% 6.62
1 28.55% 3.50
2 26.98% 3.71
3 17.00% 5.88
4 8.03% 12.45
5+ 4.33% 23.11
Over 2.5 29.36% Under 2.5 70.64%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 37.90%
Draw 33.38%
Away Win 28.72%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 29.36%
Under 2.5 70.64%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 37.15%
No 62.85%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.32% 23.13 10.46% 9.56 85.22% 1.17
-1.5 14.78% 6.77 — 85.22% 1.17
-1.0 14.78% 6.77 23.34% 4.29 61.88% 1.62
-0.5 38.12% 2.62 — 61.88% 1.62
0 (PK) 38.12% 2.62 31.8% 3.14 30.09% 3.32
+0.5 69.91% 1.43 — 30.09% 3.32
+1.0 69.91% 1.43 19.9% 5.02 10.18% 9.82
+1.5 89.82% 1.11 — 10.18% 9.82
+2.0 89.82% 1.11 7.61% 13.14 2.57% 38.85

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.