Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
42.87%
Fair Odds 2.33
Draw
31.53%
Fair Odds 3.17
Away Win
25.6%
Fair Odds 3.91
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 15.34% Fair Odds 6.52

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.33 —
Draw 3.17 —
Away Win 3.91 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 15.34% 6.52
2 1-1 13.2% 7.58
3 0-0 13.0% 7.69
4 0-1 11.18% 8.94
5 2-0 9.05% 11.05
6 2-1 7.79% 12.84
7 1-2 5.67% 17.62
8 0-2 4.81% 20.8
9 3-0 3.56% 28.08
10 2-2 3.35% 29.87
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
13.0%
7.69
11.18%
8.94
4.81%
20.8
1.38%
72.55
0.3%
337.38
0.05%
1960.78
1
15.34%
6.52
13.2%
7.58
5.67%
17.62
1.63%
61.48
0.35%
285.96
0.06%
1663.89
2
9.05%
11.05
7.79%
12.84
3.35%
29.87
0.96%
104.2
0.21%
484.73
0.04%
2816.9
3
3.56%
28.08
3.06%
32.66
1.32%
75.95
0.38%
264.9
0.08%
1231.53
0.01%
7142.86
4
1.05%
95.2
0.9%
110.71
0.39%
257.47
0.11%
897.67
0.02%
4184.1
0.0%
24390.24
5
0.25%
403.39
0.21%
469.04
0.09%
1090.51
0.03%
3802.28
0.01%
17543.86
0.0%
100000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.16% · Fair: 607.16
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 69.27% 30.73%
1.5 33.01% 66.99%
2.5 11.62% 88.38%
3.5 3.21% 96.79%
4.5 0.72% 99.28%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 57.68% 42.32%
1.5 21.29% 78.71%
2.5 5.64% 94.36%
3.5 1.16% 98.84%
4.5 0.19% 99.81%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 13.00% 7.69
1 26.53% 3.77
2 27.06% 3.70
3 18.40% 5.44
4 9.38% 10.66
5+ 5.63% 17.75
Over 2.5 33.41% Under 2.5 66.59%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 42.87%
Draw 31.53%
Away Win 25.60%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 33.41%
Under 2.5 66.59%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 39.96%
No 60.04%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.2% 16.12 12.53% 7.98 81.27% 1.23
-1.5 18.73% 5.34 — 81.27% 1.23
-1.0 18.73% 5.34 24.56% 4.07 56.7% 1.76
-0.5 43.3% 2.31 — 56.7% 1.76
0 (PK) 43.3% 2.31 29.95% 3.34 26.75% 3.74
+0.5 73.25% 1.37 — 26.75% 3.74
+1.0 73.25% 1.37 17.9% 5.59 8.85% 11.3
+1.5 91.15% 1.1 — 8.85% 11.3
+2.0 91.15% 1.1 6.66% 15.02 2.2% 45.51

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.