Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
35.02%
Fair Odds 2.86
Draw
34.68%
Fair Odds 2.88
Away Win
30.3%
Fair Odds 3.3
Most Likely Score
0 - 0
Probability 16.86% Fair Odds 5.93

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.86 —
Draw 2.88 —
Away Win 3.3 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-0 16.86% 5.93
2 1-0 15.51% 6.45
3 0-1 14.5% 6.9
4 1-1 13.34% 7.49
5 2-0 7.14% 14.01
6 0-2 6.24% 16.04
7 2-1 6.14% 16.29
8 1-2 5.74% 17.43
9 2-2 2.64% 37.89
10 3-0 2.19% 45.69
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
16.86%
5.93
14.5%
6.9
6.24%
16.04
1.79%
55.94
0.38%
260.15
0.07%
1512.86
1
15.51%
6.45
13.34%
7.49
5.74%
17.43
1.64%
60.8
0.35%
282.81
0.06%
1644.74
2
7.14%
14.01
6.14%
16.29
2.64%
37.89
0.76%
132.17
0.16%
614.63
0.03%
3571.43
3
2.19%
45.69
1.88%
53.13
0.81%
123.56
0.23%
431.03
0.05%
2004.01
0.01%
11627.91
4
0.5%
198.65
0.43%
231.0
0.19%
537.35
0.05%
1872.66
0.01%
8695.65
0.0%
50000.0
5
0.09%
1079.91
0.08%
1254.71
0.03%
2915.45
0.01%
10204.08
0.0%
47619.05
0.0%
250000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.07% · Fair: 1529.05
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 60.15% 39.85%
1.5 23.48% 76.52%
2.5 6.62% 93.38%
3.5 1.45% 98.55%
4.5 0.26% 99.74%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 57.68% 42.32%
1.5 21.29% 78.71%
2.5 5.64% 94.36%
3.5 1.16% 98.84%
4.5 0.19% 99.81%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 16.86% 5.93
1 30.02% 3.33
2 26.72% 3.74
3 15.85% 6.31
4 7.05% 14.18
5+ 3.50% 28.59
Over 2.5 26.4% Under 2.5 73.6%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 35.02%
Draw 34.68%
Away Win 30.30%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 26.4%
Under 2.5 73.6%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 34.7%
No 65.3%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.37% 29.68 9.22% 10.85 87.42% 1.14
-1.5 12.58% 7.95 — 87.42% 1.14
-1.0 12.58% 7.95 22.52% 4.44 64.9% 1.54
-0.5 35.1% 2.85 — 64.9% 1.54
0 (PK) 35.1% 2.85 33.09% 3.02 31.81% 3.14
+0.5 68.19% 1.47 — 31.81% 3.14
+1.0 68.19% 1.47 21.05% 4.75 10.76% 9.29
+1.5 89.24% 1.12 — 10.76% 9.29
+2.0 89.24% 1.12 8.05% 12.42 2.71% 36.94

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.