Poisson football calculator: xG, score, match chance
Poisson calculator for betting / sports
How bookmakers set odds: Poisson + xG — this page helps you model that.
Uses Poisson (Wikipedia, EN).
Enter home/away xG: view odds or plain probabilities.
Improved football-tuned model: nudged draws & favorites vs plain Poisson.
Enter xG
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Match odds & output
| Result | Double | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
Total
|
Over (0.5)
88.35%
|
Under (0.5)
11.65%
|
|
Over (1)
88.35%
|
Under (1)
11.65%
|
|
Over (1.5)
63.31%
|
Under (1.5)
36.69%
|
|
Over (2)
63.31%
|
Under (2)
36.69%
|
|
Over (2.5)
36.39%
|
Under (2.5)
63.61%
|
|
Over (3)
36.39%
|
Under (3)
63.61%
|
|
Over (3.5)
17.09%
|
Under (3.5)
82.91%
|
|
Over (4)
17.09%
|
Under (4)
82.91%
|
|
Over (4.5)
6.72%
|
Under (4.5)
93.28%
|
Handicap
|
Home (-2)
7.85%
|
Away (+2)
78.14%
|
|
Home (-1.5)
21.86%
|
Away (+1.5)
78.14%
|
|
Home (-1)
21.86%
|
Away (+1)
52.94%
|
|
Home (-0.5)
47.06%
|
Away (+0.5)
52.94%
|
|
Home (+0)
47.06%
|
Away (-0)
24.4%
|
|
Home (+0.5)
75.6%
|
Away (-0.5)
24.4%
|
|
Home (+1)
75.6%
|
Away (-1)
7.92%
|
|
Home (+1.5)
92.08%
|
Away (-1.5)
7.92%
|
|
Home (+2)
92.08%
|
Away (-2)
1.93%
|
Both to score (BTTS) (BTTS)
|
Yes
41.65%
|
No
58.35%
|
Home team total (OU)
|
Over (0.5)
72.75%
|
Under (0.5)
27.25%
|
|
Over (1)
72.75%
|
Under (1)
27.25%
|
|
Over (1.5)
37.32%
|
Under (1.5)
62.68%
|
|
Over (2)
37.32%
|
Under (2)
62.68%
|
|
Over (2.5)
14.29%
|
Under (2.5)
85.71%
|
|
Over (3)
14.29%
|
Under (3)
85.71%
|
|
Over (3.5)
4.31%
|
Under (3.5)
95.69%
|
|
Over (4)
4.31%
|
Under (4)
95.69%
|
|
Over (4.5)
1.07%
|
Under (4.5)
98.93%
|
Away team total (OU)
|
Over (0.5)
57.26%
|
Under (0.5)
42.74%
|
|
Over (1)
57.26%
|
Under (1)
42.74%
|
|
Over (1.5)
20.93%
|
Under (1.5)
79.07%
|
|
Over (2)
20.93%
|
Under (2)
79.07%
|
|
Over (2.5)
5.49%
|
Under (2.5)
94.51%
|
|
Over (3)
5.49%
|
Under (3)
94.51%
|
|
Over (3.5)
1.11%
|
Under (3.5)
98.89%
|
|
Over (4)
1.11%
|
Under (4)
98.89%
|
|
Over (4.5)
0.18%
|
Under (4.5)
99.82%
|
How this Poisson calculator works
It uses the following inputs:
- Home xG
- Away xG
From these it calculates:
- Prob. of each exact score
- Win / draw / win (1X2) probs
- Over/under goal probabilities
- BTTS (both to score) probabilities
All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).
How to use the Poisson calculator
- Enter the home xG
- Enter the away xG
- Click Calculate (or use live update)
- Review match & market chances
For anyone doing data-led football work.
Why Poisson helps xG models
xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.
Benefits such as
- Less noise from finishing luck
- Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
- Fair-odds from clean probabilities
- Spot model vs book value
Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.
Limits of the Poisson model
Strong model, with caveats:
- Independent goals = simplifying assumption
- Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
- Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Best: blend with Elo/strength, home edge, and form
Still, Poisson is a core building block in sports & stats work
Frequently asked questions (FAQ)
It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.
Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.
Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).
Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source
Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.
Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.
