Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
39.56%
Fair Odds 2.53
Draw
33.06%
Fair Odds 3.02
Away Win
27.38%
Fair Odds 3.65
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 15.7% Fair Odds 6.37

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.53 —
Draw 3.02 —
Away Win 3.65 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 15.7% 6.37
2 0-0 14.81% 6.75
3 1-1 13.34% 7.5
4 0-1 12.59% 7.94
5 2-0 8.32% 12.02
6 2-1 7.07% 14.14
7 1-2 5.67% 17.64
8 0-2 5.35% 18.69
9 2-2 3.01% 33.27
10 3-0 2.94% 34.02
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
14.81%
6.75
12.59%
7.94
5.35%
18.69
1.52%
65.98
0.32%
310.46
0.05%
1824.82
1
15.7%
6.37
13.34%
7.5
5.67%
17.64
1.61%
62.24
0.34%
292.91
0.06%
1724.14
2
8.32%
12.02
7.07%
14.14
3.01%
33.27
0.85%
117.44
0.18%
552.79
0.03%
3246.75
3
2.94%
34.02
2.5%
40.02
1.06%
94.17
0.3%
332.34
0.06%
1564.95
0.01%
9174.31
4
0.78%
128.37
0.66%
151.03
0.28%
355.37
0.08%
1254.71
0.02%
5917.16
0.0%
34482.76
5
0.17%
605.69
0.14%
712.25
0.06%
1675.04
0.02%
5917.16
0.0%
27777.78
0.0%
166666.67
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.11% · Fair: 947.87
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 65.35% 34.65%
1.5 28.63% 71.37%
2.5 9.17% 90.83%
3.5 2.29% 97.71%
4.5 0.47% 99.53%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 57.26% 42.74%
1.5 20.93% 79.07%
2.5 5.49% 94.51%
3.5 1.11% 98.89%
4.5 0.18% 99.82%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 14.81% 6.75
1 28.28% 3.54
2 27.01% 3.70
3 17.20% 5.82
4 8.21% 12.18
5+ 4.49% 22.27
Over 2.5 29.9% Under 2.5 70.1%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 39.56%
Draw 33.06%
Away Win 27.38%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 29.9%
Under 2.5 70.1%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 37.42%
No 62.58%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.83% 20.73 11.12% 9.0 84.06% 1.19
-1.5 15.94% 6.27 — 84.06% 1.19
-1.0 15.94% 6.27 23.91% 4.18 60.15% 1.66
-0.5 39.85% 2.51 — 60.15% 1.66
0 (PK) 39.85% 2.51 31.47% 3.18 28.67% 3.49
+0.5 71.33% 1.4 — 28.67% 3.49
+1.0 71.33% 1.4 19.18% 5.21 9.5% 10.53
+1.5 90.5% 1.1 — 9.5% 10.53
+2.0 90.5% 1.1 7.15% 13.99 2.35% 42.6

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
SHARE THIS TOOL

How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.