Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
65.71%
Fair Odds 1.52
Draw
20.87%
Fair Odds 4.79
Away Win
13.42%
Fair Odds 7.45
Most Likely Score
2 - 0
Probability 11.65% Fair Odds 8.58

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.52 —
Draw 4.79 —
Away Win 7.45 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 2-0 11.65% 8.58
2 1-0 11.04% 9.05
3 2-1 9.79% 10.22
4 1-1 9.28% 10.78
5 3-0 8.19% 12.2
6 3-1 6.88% 14.53
7 0-0 5.23% 19.11
8 0-1 4.4% 22.74
9 4-0 4.32% 23.13
10 2-2 4.11% 24.33
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.23%
19.11
4.4%
22.74
1.85%
54.15
0.52%
193.42
0.11%
920.81
0.02%
5494.51
1
11.04%
9.05
9.28%
10.78
3.9%
25.67
1.09%
91.66
0.23%
436.49
0.04%
2597.4
2
11.65%
8.58
9.79%
10.22
4.11%
24.33
1.15%
86.88
0.24%
413.74
0.04%
2463.05
3
8.19%
12.2
6.88%
14.53
2.89%
34.59
0.81%
123.53
0.17%
588.24
0.03%
3496.5
4
4.32%
23.13
3.63%
27.54
1.53%
65.57
0.43%
234.19
0.09%
1114.83
0.02%
6622.52
5
1.82%
54.82
1.53%
65.26
0.64%
155.38
0.18%
554.94
0.04%
2645.5
0.01%
15625.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 2.11% · Fair: 47.42
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 87.87% 12.12%
1.5 62.29% 37.71%
2.5 35.31% 64.69%
3.5 16.32% 83.67%
4.5 6.31% 93.69%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 56.83% 43.17%
1.5 20.57% 79.43%
2.5 5.33% 94.67%
3.5 1.07% 98.93%
4.5 0.17% 99.83%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.23% 19.11
1 15.44% 6.48
2 22.77% 4.39
3 22.39% 4.47
4 16.52% 6.05
5+ 17.64% 5.67
Over 2.5 56.55% Under 2.5 43.45%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 65.71%
Draw 20.87%
Away Win 13.42%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 56.55%
Under 2.5 43.45%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 49.94%
No 50.06%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 22.22% 4.5 20.25% 4.94 57.53% 1.74
-1.5 42.47% 2.35 — 57.53% 1.74
-1.0 42.47% 2.35 24.19% 4.13 33.34% 3.0
-0.5 66.66% 1.5 — 33.34% 3.0
0 (PK) 66.66% 1.5 19.53% 5.12 13.81% 7.24
+0.5 86.19% 1.16 — 13.81% 7.24
+1.0 86.19% 1.16 9.63% 10.38 4.18% 23.91
+1.5 95.82% 1.04 — 4.18% 23.91
+2.0 95.82% 1.04 3.21% 31.15 0.97% 102.85

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.