Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
54.3%
Fair Odds 1.84
Draw
26.63%
Fair Odds 3.76
Away Win
19.07%
Fair Odds 5.24
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 14.0% Fair Odds 7.14

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.84 —
Draw 3.76 —
Away Win 5.24 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 14.0% 7.14
2 1-1 11.76% 8.5
3 2-0 11.13% 8.99
4 2-1 9.35% 10.7
5 0-0 8.8% 11.36
6 0-1 7.4% 13.52
7 3-0 5.9% 16.95
8 3-1 4.95% 20.18
9 1-2 4.94% 20.25
10 2-2 3.93% 25.47
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.8%
11.36
7.4%
13.52
3.11%
32.2
0.87%
114.98
0.18%
547.65
0.03%
3257.33
1
14.0%
7.14
11.76%
8.5
4.94%
20.25
1.38%
72.32
0.29%
344.35
0.05%
2049.18
2
11.13%
8.99
9.35%
10.7
3.93%
25.47
1.1%
90.97
0.23%
433.09
0.04%
2577.32
3
5.9%
16.95
4.95%
20.18
2.08%
48.06
0.58%
171.64
0.12%
816.99
0.02%
4854.37
4
2.34%
42.65
1.97%
50.78
0.83%
120.9
0.23%
431.78
0.05%
2057.61
0.01%
12195.12
5
0.75%
134.14
0.63%
159.67
0.26%
380.23
0.07%
1358.7
0.02%
6451.61
0.0%
38461.54
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.61% · Fair: 163.91
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 79.61% 20.39%
1.5 47.18% 52.82%
2.5 21.41% 78.59%
3.5 7.74% 92.26%
4.5 2.31% 97.69%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 56.83% 43.17%
1.5 20.57% 79.43%
2.5 5.33% 94.67%
3.5 1.07% 98.93%
4.5 0.17% 99.83%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.80% 11.36
1 21.39% 4.67
2 25.99% 3.85
3 21.05% 4.75
4 12.79% 7.82
5+ 9.97% 10.03
Over 2.5 43.81% Under 2.5 56.19%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 54.30%
Draw 26.63%
Away Win 19.07%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 43.81%
Under 2.5 56.19%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 45.24%
No 54.76%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 12.43% 8.05 16.99% 5.89 70.58% 1.42
-1.5 29.42% 3.4 — 70.58% 1.42
-1.0 29.42% 3.4 25.67% 3.89 44.91% 2.23
-0.5 55.09% 1.82 — 44.91% 2.23
0 (PK) 55.09% 1.82 25.12% 3.98 19.79% 5.05
+0.5 80.21% 1.25 — 19.79% 5.05
+1.0 80.21% 1.25 13.56% 7.37 6.22% 16.07
+1.5 93.78% 1.07 — 6.22% 16.07
+2.0 93.78% 1.07 4.74% 21.09 1.48% 67.43

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.