Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
49.18%
Fair Odds 2.03
Draw
29.04%
Fair Odds 3.44
Away Win
21.79%
Fair Odds 4.59
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 14.95% Fair Odds 6.69

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.03 —
Draw 3.44 —
Away Win 4.59 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 14.95% 6.69
2 1-1 12.55% 7.96
3 0-0 10.75% 9.3
4 2-0 10.39% 9.63
5 0-1 9.03% 11.07
6 2-1 8.73% 11.46
7 1-2 5.27% 18.96
8 3-0 4.81% 20.78
9 3-1 4.04% 24.73
10 0-2 3.79% 26.36
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.75%
9.3
9.03%
11.07
3.79%
26.36
1.06%
94.14
0.22%
448.23
0.04%
2666.67
1
14.95%
6.69
12.55%
7.96
5.27%
18.96
1.48%
67.73
0.31%
322.48
0.05%
1919.39
2
10.39%
9.63
8.73%
11.46
3.66%
27.29
1.03%
97.46
0.22%
464.04
0.04%
2762.43
3
4.81%
20.78
4.04%
24.73
1.7%
58.89
0.48%
210.35
0.1%
1002.0
0.02%
5952.38
4
1.67%
59.79
1.4%
71.18
0.59%
169.46
0.17%
605.33
0.03%
2881.84
0.01%
17241.38
5
0.46%
215.05
0.39%
256.02
0.16%
609.76
0.05%
2178.65
0.01%
10416.67
0.0%
62500.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.33% · Fair: 300.12
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 75.09% 24.91%
1.5 40.47% 59.53%
2.5 16.41% 83.59%
3.5 5.26% 94.74%
4.5 1.39% 98.61%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 56.83% 43.17%
1.5 20.57% 79.43%
2.5 5.33% 94.67%
3.5 1.07% 98.93%
4.5 0.17% 99.83%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 10.75% 9.30
1 23.98% 4.17
2 26.74% 3.74
3 19.87% 5.03
4 11.08% 9.03
5+ 7.58% 13.20
Over 2.5 38.53% Under 2.5 61.47%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 49.18%
Draw 29.04%
Away Win 21.79%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 38.53%
Under 2.5 61.47%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 42.67%
No 57.33%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 9.22% 10.85 15.07% 6.64 75.71% 1.32
-1.5 24.29% 4.12 — 75.71% 1.32
-1.0 24.29% 4.12 25.55% 3.91 50.17% 1.99
-0.5 49.83% 2.01 — 50.17% 1.99
0 (PK) 49.83% 2.01 27.48% 3.64 22.68% 4.41
+0.5 77.32% 1.29 — 22.68% 4.41
+1.0 77.32% 1.29 15.44% 6.48 7.25% 13.8
+1.5 92.75% 1.08 — 7.25% 13.8
+2.0 92.75% 1.08 5.5% 18.17 1.74% 57.34

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.