Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
46.18%
Fair Odds 2.17
Draw
30.39%
Fair Odds 3.29
Away Win
23.43%
Fair Odds 4.27
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 15.36% Fair Odds 6.51

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.17 —
Draw 3.29 —
Away Win 4.27 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 15.36% 6.51
2 1-1 12.91% 7.75
3 0-0 12.0% 8.33
4 0-1 10.08% 9.92
5 2-0 9.83% 10.17
6 2-1 8.26% 12.11
7 1-2 5.42% 18.45
8 0-2 4.23% 23.61
9 3-0 4.2% 23.84
10 3-1 3.52% 28.38
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
12.0%
8.33
10.08%
9.92
4.23%
23.61
1.19%
84.34
0.25%
401.61
0.04%
2392.34
1
15.36%
6.51
12.91%
7.75
5.42%
18.45
1.52%
65.89
0.32%
313.77
0.05%
1869.16
2
9.83%
10.17
8.26%
12.11
3.47%
28.83
0.97%
102.95
0.2%
490.2
0.03%
2915.45
3
4.2%
23.84
3.52%
28.38
1.48%
67.56
0.41%
241.31
0.09%
1149.43
0.01%
6849.32
4
1.34%
74.49
1.13%
88.68
0.47%
211.15
0.13%
754.15
0.03%
3584.23
0.0%
21276.6
5
0.34%
290.95
0.29%
346.38
0.12%
824.4
0.03%
2941.18
0.01%
14084.51
0.0%
83333.33
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.23% · Fair: 433.46
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 72.2% 27.8%
1.5 36.61% 63.39%
2.5 13.83% 86.17%
3.5 4.11% 95.89%
4.5 1.0% 99.0%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 56.83% 43.17%
1.5 20.57% 79.43%
2.5 5.33% 94.67%
3.5 1.07% 98.93%
4.5 0.17% 99.83%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 12.00% 8.33
1 25.45% 3.93
2 26.97% 3.71
3 19.06% 5.25
4 10.10% 9.90
5+ 6.41% 15.59
Over 2.5 35.58% Under 2.5 64.42%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 46.18%
Draw 30.39%
Away Win 23.43%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 35.58%
Under 2.5 64.42%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 41.03%
No 58.97%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.62% 13.12 13.87% 7.21 78.51% 1.27
-1.5 21.49% 4.65 — 78.51% 1.27
-1.0 21.49% 4.65 25.24% 3.96 53.27% 1.88
-0.5 46.73% 2.14 — 53.27% 1.88
0 (PK) 46.73% 2.14 28.82% 3.47 24.44% 4.09
+0.5 75.56% 1.32 — 24.44% 4.09
+1.0 75.56% 1.32 16.57% 6.04 7.88% 12.69
+1.5 92.12% 1.09 — 7.88% 12.69
+2.0 92.12% 1.09 5.97% 16.75 1.91% 52.46

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.