Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
45.01%
Fair Odds 2.22
Draw
31.05%
Fair Odds 3.22
Away Win
23.93%
Fair Odds 4.18
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 15.68% Fair Odds 6.38

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.22 —
Draw 3.22 —
Away Win 4.18 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 15.68% 6.38
2 1-1 13.01% 7.69
3 0-0 12.75% 7.85
4 0-1 10.58% 9.45
5 2-0 9.64% 10.37
6 2-1 8.0% 12.5
7 1-2 5.4% 18.52
8 0-2 4.39% 22.78
9 3-0 3.95% 25.3
10 2-2 3.32% 30.11
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
12.75%
7.85
10.58%
9.45
4.39%
22.78
1.21%
82.33
0.25%
396.83
0.04%
2392.34
1
15.68%
6.38
13.01%
7.69
5.4%
18.52
1.49%
66.93
0.31%
322.58
0.05%
1941.75
2
9.64%
10.37
8.0%
12.5
3.32%
30.11
0.92%
108.84
0.19%
524.66
0.03%
3164.56
3
3.95%
25.3
3.28%
30.48
1.36%
73.44
0.38%
265.46
0.08%
1278.77
0.01%
7692.31
4
1.22%
82.27
1.01%
99.12
0.42%
238.83
0.12%
863.56
0.02%
4166.67
0.0%
25000.0
5
0.3%
334.45
0.25%
402.9
0.1%
970.87
0.03%
3508.77
0.01%
16949.15
0.0%
100000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.19% · Fair: 520.56
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 70.77% 29.23%
1.5 34.82% 65.18%
2.5 12.71% 87.29%
3.5 3.64% 96.36%
4.5 0.86% 99.14%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 56.4% 43.6%
1.5 20.2% 79.8%
2.5 5.18% 94.82%
3.5 1.03% 98.97%
4.5 0.17% 99.83%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 12.75% 7.85
1 26.26% 3.81
2 27.04% 3.70
3 18.57% 5.39
4 9.56% 10.46
5+ 5.82% 17.17
Over 2.5 33.96% Under 2.5 66.04%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 45.01%
Draw 31.05%
Away Win 23.93%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 33.96%
Under 2.5 66.04%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 39.91%
No 60.09%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.0% 14.29 13.37% 7.48 79.63% 1.26
-1.5 20.37% 4.91 — 79.63% 1.26
-1.0 20.37% 4.91 25.16% 3.97 54.47% 1.84
-0.5 45.53% 2.2 — 54.47% 1.84
0 (PK) 45.53% 2.2 29.48% 3.39 24.99% 4.0
+0.5 75.01% 1.33 — 24.99% 4.0
+1.0 75.01% 1.33 16.98% 5.89 8.01% 12.48
+1.5 91.99% 1.09 — 8.01% 12.48
+2.0 91.99% 1.09 6.09% 16.42 1.92% 52.0

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.