Football Poisson Calculator
xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine
Premium FHn2uDc1 betting site ang stake: puwedeng gamitin ng mga bagong user ang promo code FHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Mag-register
INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
40.92%
Fair Odds
2.44
Draw
32.83%
Fair Odds
3.05
Away Win
26.25%
Fair Odds
3.81
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 15.98%
Fair Odds 6.26
Match odds & output
FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
| Market | Market Odds | Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. | Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home Win | 2.44 | — | |
| Draw | 3.05 | — | |
| Away Win | 3.81 | — |
Find Value Opportunities
Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.
See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
| # | Correct Score | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-0 | 15.98% | 6.26 |
| 2 | 0-0 | 14.66% | 6.82 |
| 3 | 1-1 | 13.26% | 7.54 |
| 4 | 0-1 | 12.17% | 8.22 |
| 5 | 2-0 | 8.71% | 11.48 |
| 6 | 2-1 | 7.23% | 13.83 |
| 7 | 1-2 | 5.5% | 18.17 |
| 8 | 0-2 | 5.05% | 19.8 |
| 9 | 3-0 | 3.16% | 31.6 |
| 10 | 2-2 | 3.0% | 33.33 |
SCORE MATRIX
Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
14.66%
6.82
|
12.17%
8.22
|
5.05%
19.8
|
1.4%
71.58
|
0.29%
344.95
|
0.05%
2079.0
|
| 1 |
15.98%
6.26
|
13.26%
7.54
|
5.5%
18.17
|
1.52%
65.66
|
0.32%
316.46
|
0.05%
1904.76
|
| 2 |
8.71%
11.48
|
7.23%
13.83
|
3.0%
33.33
|
0.83%
120.48
|
0.17%
580.72
|
0.03%
3496.5
|
| 3 |
3.16%
31.6
|
2.63%
38.07
|
1.09%
91.74
|
0.3%
331.56
|
0.06%
1597.44
|
0.01%
9615.38
|
| 4 |
0.86%
115.97
|
0.72%
139.72
|
0.3%
336.7
|
0.08%
1216.55
|
0.02%
5847.95
|
0.0%
35714.29
|
| 5 |
0.19%
531.91
|
0.16%
641.03
|
0.06%
1545.6
|
0.02%
5586.59
|
0.0%
27027.03
|
0.0%
166666.67
|
Any other score (6+ goals either side)
0.11%
·
Fair:
872.6
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 66.38% | 33.62% |
| 1.5 | 29.73% | 70.27% |
| 2.5 | 9.76% | 90.24% |
| 3.5 | 2.5% | 97.5% |
| 4.5 | 0.52% | 99.48% |
Away Team
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| 1.5 | 20.2% | 79.8% |
| 2.5 | 5.18% | 94.82% |
| 3.5 | 1.03% | 98.97% |
| 4.5 | 0.17% | 99.83% |
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
| Goals | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.66% | 6.82 |
| 1 | 28.15% | 3.55 |
| 2 | 27.02% | 3.70 |
| 3 | 17.29% | 5.78 |
| 4 | 8.30% | 12.05 |
| 5+ | 4.57% | 21.87 |
|
Over 2.5 30.17%
Under 2.5 69.83%
|
||
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win
40.92%
Draw
32.83%
Away Win
26.25%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
30.17%
Under 2.5
69.83%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes
37.43%
No
62.57%
Asian Handicap Probability
?
Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model.
Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines.
Home Handicap
| Line | Home Side | Push | Away Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 5.24% 19.07 | 11.65% 8.58 | 83.11% 1.2 |
| -1.5 | 16.89% 5.92 | — | 83.11% 1.2 |
| -1.0 | 16.89% 5.92 | 24.38% 4.1 | 58.72% 1.7 |
| -0.5 | 41.28% 2.42 | — | 58.72% 1.7 |
| 0 (PK) | 41.28% 2.42 | 31.24% 3.2 | 27.48% 3.64 |
| +0.5 | 72.52% 1.38 | — | 27.48% 3.64 |
| +1.0 | 72.52% 1.38 | 18.57% 5.39 | 8.91% 11.22 |
| +1.5 | 91.09% 1.1 | — | 8.91% 11.22 |
| +2.0 | 91.09% 1.1 | 6.76% 14.8 | 2.15% 46.42 |
HOW THE MODEL WORKS
Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output
All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).
Limits of the Poisson model
Strong model, with caveats:
- Independent goals = simplifying assumption
- Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
- Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
SHARE THIS TOOL
How to use the Poisson calculator
- Enter the home xG
- Enter the away xG
- Click Calculate (or use live update)
- Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions
For anyone doing data-led football work.
Why Poisson helps xG models
xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.
Benefits such as
- Less noise from finishing luck
- Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
- Fair-odds from clean probabilities
- Spot model vs book value
Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.
Frequently asked questions (FAQ)
It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.
Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.
Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).
Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source
Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.
Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.
