Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
66.38%
Fair Odds 1.51
Draw
20.67%
Fair Odds 4.84
Away Win
12.95%
Fair Odds 7.72
Most Likely Score
2 - 0
Probability 11.88% Fair Odds 8.42

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.51 —
Draw 4.84 —
Away Win 7.72 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 2-0 11.88% 8.42
2 1-0 11.21% 8.92
3 2-1 9.74% 10.27
4 1-1 9.19% 10.88
5 3-0 8.4% 11.91
6 3-1 6.88% 14.53
7 0-0 5.29% 18.92
8 4-0 4.45% 22.47
9 0-1 4.34% 23.07
10 2-2 3.99% 25.04
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.29%
18.92
4.34%
23.07
1.78%
56.26
0.49%
205.85
0.1%
1004.02
0.02%
6134.97
1
11.21%
8.92
9.19%
10.88
3.77%
26.54
1.03%
97.1
0.21%
473.71
0.03%
2890.17
2
11.88%
8.42
9.74%
10.27
3.99%
25.04
1.09%
91.6
0.22%
446.83
0.04%
2724.8
3
8.4%
11.91
6.88%
14.53
2.82%
35.43
0.77%
129.62
0.16%
632.11
0.03%
3861.0
4
4.45%
22.47
3.65%
27.41
1.5%
66.85
0.41%
244.56
0.08%
1193.32
0.01%
7299.27
5
1.89%
53.01
1.55%
64.64
0.63%
157.65
0.17%
576.7
0.04%
2816.9
0.01%
17241.38
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 2.15% · Fair: 46.54
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 88.0% 12.0%
1.5 62.55% 37.45%
2.5 35.58% 64.42%
3.5 16.51% 83.48%
4.5 6.41% 93.59%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 55.96% 44.04%
1.5 19.84% 80.16%
2.5 5.03% 94.97%
3.5 0.99% 99.01%
4.5 0.16% 99.84%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.29% 18.92
1 15.54% 6.43
2 22.85% 4.38
3 22.39% 4.47
4 16.46% 6.08
5+ 17.47% 5.72
Over 2.5 56.32% Under 2.5 43.68%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 66.38%
Draw 20.67%
Away Win 12.95%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 56.32%
Under 2.5 43.68%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 49.24%
No 50.76%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 22.67% 4.41 20.45% 4.89 56.88% 1.76
-1.5 43.12% 2.32 — 56.88% 1.76
-1.0 43.12% 2.32 24.22% 4.13 32.66% 3.06
-0.5 67.34% 1.49 — 32.66% 3.06
0 (PK) 67.34% 1.49 19.33% 5.17 13.33% 7.5
+0.5 86.67% 1.15 — 13.33% 7.5
+1.0 86.67% 1.15 9.37% 10.68 3.96% 25.25
+1.5 96.04% 1.04 — 3.96% 25.25
+2.0 96.04% 1.04 3.06% 32.69 0.9% 110.87

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.