Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
51.51%
Fair Odds 1.94
Draw
28.2%
Fair Odds 3.55
Away Win
20.28%
Fair Odds 4.93
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 14.93% Fair Odds 6.7

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.94 —
Draw 3.55 —
Away Win 4.93 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 14.93% 6.7
2 1-1 12.25% 8.17
3 2-0 10.9% 9.17
4 0-0 10.23% 9.78
5 2-1 8.94% 11.19
6 0-1 8.39% 11.92
7 3-0 5.31% 18.85
8 1-2 5.02% 19.92
9 3-1 4.35% 22.99
10 2-2 3.67% 27.28
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.23%
9.78
8.39%
11.92
3.44%
29.08
0.94%
106.39
0.19%
518.94
0.03%
3164.56
1
14.93%
6.7
12.25%
8.17
5.02%
19.92
1.37%
72.87
0.28%
355.49
0.05%
2169.2
2
10.9%
9.17
8.94%
11.19
3.67%
27.28
1.0%
99.82
0.21%
486.85
0.03%
2967.36
3
5.31%
18.85
4.35%
22.99
1.78%
56.06
0.49%
205.13
0.1%
1001.0
0.02%
6097.56
4
1.94%
51.64
1.59%
62.98
0.65%
153.61
0.18%
561.8
0.04%
2739.73
0.01%
16666.67
5
0.57%
176.87
0.46%
215.66
0.19%
526.04
0.05%
1923.08
0.01%
9345.79
0.0%
58823.53
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.41% · Fair: 242.42
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 76.78% 23.22%
1.5 42.87% 57.13%
2.5 18.12% 81.88%
3.5 6.07% 93.93%
4.5 1.68% 98.32%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 55.96% 44.04%
1.5 19.84% 80.16%
2.5 5.03% 94.97%
3.5 0.99% 99.01%
4.5 0.16% 99.84%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 10.23% 9.78
1 23.32% 4.29
2 26.59% 3.76
3 20.21% 4.95
4 11.52% 8.68
5+ 8.14% 12.28
Over 2.5 39.87% Under 2.5 60.13%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 51.51%
Draw 28.20%
Away Win 20.28%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 39.87%
Under 2.5 60.13%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 42.96%
No 57.04%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.44% 9.58 15.96% 6.27 73.6% 1.36
-1.5 26.39% 3.79 — 73.6% 1.36
-1.0 26.39% 3.79 25.85% 3.87 47.76% 2.09
-0.5 52.24% 1.91 — 47.76% 2.09
0 (PK) 52.24% 1.91 26.66% 3.75 21.09% 4.74
+0.5 78.91% 1.27 — 21.09% 4.74
+1.0 78.91% 1.27 14.52% 6.89 6.58% 15.2
+1.5 93.42% 1.07 — 6.58% 15.2
+2.0 93.42% 1.07 5.03% 19.87 1.55% 64.72

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.