Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
47.77%
Fair Odds 2.09
Draw
29.95%
Fair Odds 3.34
Away Win
22.27%
Fair Odds 4.49
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 15.53% Fair Odds 6.44

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.09 —
Draw 3.34 —
Away Win 4.49 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 15.53% 6.44
2 1-1 12.73% 7.85
3 0-0 11.77% 8.5
4 2-0 10.25% 9.76
5 0-1 9.65% 10.37
6 2-1 8.41% 11.9
7 1-2 5.22% 19.15
8 3-0 4.51% 22.17
9 0-2 3.96% 25.28
10 3-1 3.7% 27.04
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
11.77%
8.5
9.65%
10.37
3.96%
25.28
1.08%
92.49
0.22%
451.26
0.04%
2754.82
1
15.53%
6.44
12.73%
7.85
5.22%
19.15
1.43%
70.07
0.29%
341.76
0.05%
2083.33
2
10.25%
9.76
8.41%
11.9
3.45%
29.02
0.94%
106.17
0.19%
517.87
0.03%
3154.57
3
4.51%
22.17
3.7%
27.04
1.52%
65.95
0.41%
241.31
0.08%
1176.47
0.01%
7194.24
4
1.49%
67.19
1.22%
81.94
0.5%
199.84
0.14%
730.99
0.03%
3571.43
0.0%
21739.13
5
0.39%
254.52
0.32%
310.37
0.13%
757.0
0.04%
2770.08
0.01%
13513.51
0.0%
83333.33
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.26% · Fair: 382.56
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 73.29% 26.71%
1.5 38.02% 61.98%
2.5 14.75% 85.25%
3.5 4.51% 95.49%
4.5 1.13% 98.87%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 55.96% 44.04%
1.5 19.84% 80.16%
2.5 5.03% 94.97%
3.5 0.99% 99.01%
4.5 0.16% 99.84%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 11.77% 8.50
1 25.18% 3.97
2 26.94% 3.71
3 19.22% 5.20
4 10.28% 9.73
5+ 6.62% 15.11
Over 2.5 36.12% Under 2.5 63.88%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 47.77%
Draw 29.95%
Away Win 22.27%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 36.12%
Under 2.5 63.88%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 41.01%
No 58.99%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.3% 12.04 14.49% 6.9 77.21% 1.3
-1.5 22.79% 4.39 — 77.21% 1.3
-1.0 22.79% 4.39 25.6% 3.91 51.61% 1.94
-0.5 48.39% 2.07 — 51.61% 1.94
0 (PK) 48.39% 2.07 28.39% 3.52 23.22% 4.31
+0.5 76.78% 1.3 — 23.22% 4.31
+1.0 76.78% 1.3 15.9% 6.29 7.32% 13.66
+1.5 92.68% 1.08 — 7.32% 13.66
+2.0 92.68% 1.08 5.59% 17.89 1.73% 57.75

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.