Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
40.85%
Fair Odds 2.45
Draw
33.03%
Fair Odds 3.03
Away Win
26.12%
Fair Odds 3.83
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 16.15% Fair Odds 6.19

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.45 —
Draw 3.03 —
Away Win 3.83 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 16.15% 6.19
2 0-0 14.96% 6.69
3 1-1 13.25% 7.55
4 0-1 12.26% 8.15
5 2-0 8.72% 11.46
6 2-1 7.15% 13.98
7 1-2 5.43% 18.41
8 0-2 5.03% 19.89
9 3-0 3.14% 31.85
10 2-2 2.93% 34.1
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
14.96%
6.69
12.26%
8.15
5.03%
19.89
1.37%
72.75
0.28%
354.86
0.05%
2164.5
1
16.15%
6.19
13.25%
7.55
5.43%
18.41
1.48%
67.37
0.3%
328.62
0.05%
2004.01
2
8.72%
11.46
7.15%
13.98
2.93%
34.1
0.8%
124.75
0.16%
608.64
0.03%
3717.47
3
3.14%
31.85
2.57%
38.83
1.06%
94.72
0.29%
346.5
0.06%
1689.19
0.01%
10309.28
4
0.85%
117.94
0.7%
143.84
0.29%
350.75
0.08%
1283.7
0.02%
6250.0
0.0%
38461.54
5
0.18%
546.15
0.15%
665.78
0.06%
1623.38
0.02%
5952.38
0.0%
28571.43
0.0%
166666.67
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.11% · Fair: 916.59
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 66.04% 33.96%
1.5 29.36% 70.64%
2.5 9.56% 90.44%
3.5 2.43% 97.57%
4.5 0.5% 99.5%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 55.96% 44.04%
1.5 19.84% 80.16%
2.5 5.03% 94.97%
3.5 0.99% 99.01%
4.5 0.16% 99.84%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 14.96% 6.69
1 28.42% 3.52
2 27.00% 3.70
3 17.10% 5.85
4 8.12% 12.31
5+ 4.41% 22.69
Over 2.5 29.63% Under 2.5 70.37%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 40.85%
Draw 33.03%
Away Win 26.12%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 29.63%
Under 2.5 70.37%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 36.95%
No 63.05%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.17% 19.36 11.6% 8.62 83.23% 1.2
-1.5 16.77% 5.96 — 83.23% 1.2
-1.0 16.77% 5.96 24.44% 4.09 58.79% 1.7
-0.5 41.21% 2.43 — 58.79% 1.7
0 (PK) 41.21% 2.43 31.44% 3.18 27.35% 3.66
+0.5 72.65% 1.38 — 27.35% 3.66
+1.0 72.65% 1.38 18.56% 5.39 8.79% 11.37
+1.5 91.21% 1.1 — 8.79% 11.37
+2.0 91.21% 1.1 6.69% 14.95 2.1% 47.53

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.