Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
35.57%
Fair Odds 2.81
Draw
35.23%
Fair Odds 2.84
Away Win
29.21%
Fair Odds 3.42
Most Likely Score
0 - 0
Probability 17.73% Fair Odds 5.64

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.81 —
Draw 2.84 —
Away Win 3.42 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-0 17.73% 5.64
2 1-0 16.13% 6.2
3 0-1 14.54% 6.88
4 1-1 13.23% 7.56
5 2-0 7.34% 13.62
6 2-1 6.02% 16.61
7 0-2 5.96% 16.78
8 1-2 5.42% 18.44
9 2-2 2.47% 40.52
10 3-0 2.23% 44.91
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
17.73%
5.64
14.54%
6.88
5.96%
16.78
1.63%
61.38
0.33%
299.4
0.05%
1824.82
1
16.13%
6.2
13.23%
7.56
5.42%
18.44
1.48%
67.45
0.3%
329.06
0.05%
2008.03
2
7.34%
13.62
6.02%
16.61
2.47%
40.52
0.67%
148.26
0.14%
723.07
0.02%
4405.29
3
2.23%
44.91
1.83%
54.77
0.75%
133.58
0.2%
488.76
0.04%
2386.63
0.01%
14492.75
4
0.51%
197.39
0.42%
240.73
0.17%
587.2
0.05%
2150.54
0.01%
10526.32
0.0%
62500.0
5
0.09%
1084.6
0.08%
1322.75
0.03%
3225.81
0.01%
11764.71
0.0%
58823.53
0.0%
333333.33
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.06% · Fair: 1742.16
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 59.75% 40.25%
1.5 23.12% 76.88%
2.5 6.45% 93.55%
3.5 1.4% 98.6%
4.5 0.25% 99.75%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 55.96% 44.04%
1.5 19.84% 80.16%
2.5 5.03% 94.97%
3.5 0.99% 99.01%
4.5 0.16% 99.84%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 17.73% 5.64
1 30.67% 3.26
2 26.53% 3.77
3 15.30% 6.54
4 6.62% 15.11
5+ 3.16% 31.69
Over 2.5 25.07% Under 2.5 74.93%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 35.57%
Draw 35.23%
Away Win 29.21%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 25.07%
Under 2.5 74.93%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 33.43%
No 66.57%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.38% 29.56 9.35% 10.7 87.27% 1.15
-1.5 12.73% 7.86 — 87.27% 1.15
-1.0 12.73% 7.86 22.95% 4.36 64.32% 1.55
-0.5 35.68% 2.8 — 64.32% 1.55
0 (PK) 35.68% 2.8 33.64% 2.97 30.68% 3.26
+0.5 69.32% 1.44 — 30.68% 3.26
+1.0 69.32% 1.44 20.68% 4.84 10.0% 10.0
+1.5 90.0% 1.11 — 10.0% 10.0
+2.0 90.0% 1.11 7.59% 13.18 2.42% 41.41

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.