Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
30.16%
Fair Odds 3.32
Draw
36.91%
Fair Odds 2.71
Away Win
32.93%
Fair Odds 3.04
Most Likely Score
0 - 0
Probability 20.19% Fair Odds 4.95

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.32 —
Draw 2.71 —
Away Win 3.04 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-0 20.19% 4.95
2 0-1 16.35% 6.11
3 1-0 15.95% 6.27
4 1-1 12.92% 7.74
5 0-2 6.62% 15.1
6 2-0 6.3% 15.87
7 1-2 5.23% 19.11
8 2-1 5.1% 19.6
9 2-2 2.07% 48.38
10 0-3 1.79% 55.92
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
20.19%
4.95
16.35%
6.11
6.62%
15.1
1.79%
55.92
0.36%
276.17
0.06%
1703.58
1
15.95%
6.27
12.92%
7.74
5.23%
19.11
1.41%
70.79
0.29%
349.53
0.05%
2159.83
2
6.3%
15.87
5.1%
19.6
2.07%
48.38
0.56%
179.21
0.11%
884.96
0.02%
5464.48
3
1.66%
60.28
1.34%
74.42
0.54%
183.72
0.15%
680.74
0.03%
3355.7
0.0%
20833.33
4
0.33%
305.16
0.27%
376.79
0.11%
930.23
0.03%
3448.28
0.01%
16949.15
0.0%
100000.0
5
0.05%
1930.5
0.04%
2386.63
0.02%
5882.35
0.0%
21739.13
0.0%
111111.11
0.0%
500000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.04% · Fair: 2710.03
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 54.62% 45.38%
1.5 18.76% 81.24%
2.5 4.6% 95.4%
3.5 0.87% 99.13%
4.5 0.13% 99.87%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 55.51% 44.49%
1.5 19.48% 80.52%
2.5 4.89% 95.11%
3.5 0.95% 99.05%
4.5 0.15% 99.85%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 20.19% 4.95
1 32.30% 3.10
2 25.84% 3.87
3 13.78% 7.26
4 5.51% 18.14
5+ 2.37% 42.22
Over 2.5 21.66% Under 2.5 78.34%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 30.16%
Draw 36.91%
Away Win 32.93%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 21.66%
Under 2.5 78.34%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 30.32%
No 69.68%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 2.38% 42.02 7.76% 12.89 89.86% 1.11
-1.5 10.14% 9.87 — 89.86% 1.11
-1.0 10.14% 9.87 21.63% 4.62 68.24% 1.47
-0.5 31.76% 3.15 — 68.24% 1.47
0 (PK) 31.76% 3.15 35.33% 2.83 32.91% 3.04
+0.5 67.09% 1.49 — 32.91% 3.04
+1.0 67.09% 1.49 22.17% 4.51 10.73% 9.32
+1.5 89.27% 1.12 — 10.73% 9.32
+2.0 89.27% 1.12 8.15% 12.26 2.58% 38.77

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.