Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
55.54%
Fair Odds 1.8
Draw
26.48%
Fair Odds 3.78
Away Win
17.98%
Fair Odds 5.56
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 14.51% Fair Odds 6.89

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.8 —
Draw 3.78 —
Away Win 5.56 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 14.51% 6.89
2 1-1 11.61% 8.61
3 2-0 11.61% 8.61
4 2-1 9.29% 10.76
5 0-0 9.07% 11.02
6 0-1 7.26% 13.78
7 3-0 6.19% 16.15
8 3-1 4.95% 20.18
9 1-2 4.64% 21.53
10 2-2 3.72% 26.91
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.07%
11.02
7.26%
13.78
2.9%
34.45
0.77%
129.18
0.15%
645.99
0.02%
4032.26
1
14.51%
6.89
11.61%
8.61
4.64%
21.53
1.24%
80.74
0.25%
403.71
0.04%
2525.25
2
11.61%
8.61
9.29%
10.76
3.72%
26.91
0.99%
100.92
0.2%
504.54
0.03%
3154.57
3
6.19%
16.15
4.95%
20.18
1.98%
50.46
0.53%
189.21
0.11%
946.07
0.02%
5917.16
4
2.48%
40.37
1.98%
50.46
0.79%
126.15
0.21%
473.04
0.04%
2364.07
0.01%
14705.88
5
0.79%
126.15
0.63%
157.68
0.25%
394.17
0.07%
1479.29
0.01%
7407.41
0.0%
45454.55
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.62% · Fair: 160.72
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 79.81% 20.19%
1.5 47.51% 52.49%
2.5 21.66% 78.34%
3.5 7.88% 92.12%
4.5 2.37% 97.63%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 55.07% 44.93%
1.5 19.12% 80.88%
2.5 4.74% 95.26%
3.5 0.91% 99.09%
4.5 0.14% 99.86%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 9.07% 11.02
1 21.77% 4.59
2 26.13% 3.83
3 20.90% 4.78
4 12.54% 7.97
5+ 9.59% 10.43
Over 2.5 43.03% Under 2.5 56.97%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 55.54%
Draw 26.48%
Away Win 17.98%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 43.03%
Under 2.5 56.97%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 43.95%
No 56.05%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 12.93% 7.73 17.43% 5.74 69.64% 1.44
-1.5 30.36% 3.29 — 69.64% 1.44
-1.0 30.36% 3.29 26.01% 3.84 43.63% 2.29
-0.5 56.37% 1.77 — 43.63% 2.29
0 (PK) 56.37% 1.77 24.97% 4.0 18.65% 5.36
+0.5 81.35% 1.23 — 18.65% 5.36
+1.0 81.35% 1.23 13.01% 7.69 5.65% 17.71
+1.5 94.35% 1.06 — 5.65% 17.71
+2.0 94.35% 1.06 4.36% 22.95 1.29% 77.53

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.