Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
42.53%
Fair Odds 2.35
Draw
32.63%
Fair Odds 3.06
Away Win
24.84%
Fair Odds 4.03
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 16.42% Fair Odds 6.09

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.35 —
Draw 3.06 —
Away Win 4.03 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 16.42% 6.09
2 0-0 14.66% 6.82
3 1-1 13.14% 7.61
4 0-1 11.73% 8.53
5 2-0 9.2% 10.88
6 2-1 7.36% 13.59
7 1-2 5.25% 19.03
8 0-2 4.69% 21.32
9 3-0 3.43% 29.13
10 2-2 2.94% 33.98
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
14.66%
6.82
11.73%
8.53
4.69%
21.32
1.25%
79.94
0.25%
399.68
0.04%
2500.0
1
16.42%
6.09
13.14%
7.61
5.25%
19.03
1.4%
71.37
0.28%
356.89
0.04%
2232.14
2
9.2%
10.88
7.36%
13.59
2.94%
33.98
0.78%
127.44
0.16%
637.35
0.03%
3984.06
3
3.43%
29.13
2.75%
36.41
1.1%
91.03
0.29%
341.41
0.06%
1706.48
0.01%
10638.3
4
0.96%
104.04
0.77%
130.04
0.31%
325.1
0.08%
1219.51
0.02%
6097.56
0.0%
38461.54
5
0.22%
464.47
0.17%
580.72
0.07%
1451.38
0.02%
5434.78
0.0%
27027.03
0.0%
166666.67
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.12% · Fair: 803.86
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 67.37% 32.63%
1.5 30.83% 69.17%
2.5 10.36% 89.64%
3.5 2.72% 97.28%
4.5 0.59% 99.41%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 55.07% 44.93%
1.5 19.12% 80.88%
2.5 4.74% 95.26%
3.5 0.91% 99.09%
4.5 0.14% 99.86%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 14.66% 6.82
1 28.15% 3.55
2 27.02% 3.70
3 17.29% 5.78
4 8.30% 12.05
5+ 4.57% 21.87
Over 2.5 30.17% Under 2.5 69.83%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 42.53%
Draw 32.63%
Away Win 24.84%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 30.17%
Under 2.5 69.83%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 37.1%
No 62.9%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.72% 17.47 12.27% 8.15 82.01% 1.22
-1.5 17.99% 5.56 — 82.01% 1.22
-1.0 17.99% 5.56 24.96% 4.01 57.05% 1.75
-0.5 42.95% 2.33 — 57.05% 1.75
0 (PK) 42.95% 2.33 31.05% 3.22 26.0% 3.85
+0.5 74.0% 1.35 — 26.0% 3.85
+1.0 74.0% 1.35 17.83% 5.61 8.17% 12.24
+1.5 91.83% 1.09 — 8.17% 12.24
+2.0 91.83% 1.09 6.26% 15.98 1.91% 52.37

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.