Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
37.92%
Fair Odds 2.64
Draw
34.64%
Fair Odds 2.89
Away Win
27.45%
Fair Odds 3.64
Most Likely Score
0 - 0
Probability 17.03% Fair Odds 5.87

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.64 —
Draw 2.89 —
Away Win 3.64 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-0 17.03% 5.87
2 1-0 16.52% 6.05
3 0-1 13.63% 7.34
4 1-1 13.22% 7.57
5 2-0 8.01% 12.48
6 2-1 6.41% 15.6
7 0-2 5.45% 18.35
8 1-2 5.29% 18.91
9 3-0 2.59% 38.6
10 2-2 2.56% 39.0
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
17.03%
5.87
13.63%
7.34
5.45%
18.35
1.45%
68.8
0.29%
344.0
0.05%
2150.54
1
16.52%
6.05
13.22%
7.57
5.29%
18.91
1.41%
70.93
0.28%
354.61
0.05%
2217.29
2
8.01%
12.48
6.41%
15.6
2.56%
39.0
0.68%
146.24
0.14%
730.99
0.02%
4566.21
3
2.59%
38.6
2.07%
48.24
0.83%
120.61
0.22%
452.28
0.04%
2262.44
0.01%
14084.51
4
0.63%
159.16
0.5%
198.97
0.2%
497.27
0.05%
1865.67
0.01%
9345.79
0.0%
58823.53
5
0.12%
820.34
0.1%
1025.64
0.04%
2564.1
0.01%
9615.38
0.0%
47619.05
0.0%
333333.33
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.07% · Fair: 1445.09
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 62.09% 37.91%
1.5 25.32% 74.68%
2.5 7.49% 92.51%
3.5 1.72% 98.28%
4.5 0.32% 99.68%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 55.07% 44.93%
1.5 19.12% 80.88%
2.5 4.74% 95.26%
3.5 0.91% 99.09%
4.5 0.14% 99.86%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 17.03% 5.87
1 30.15% 3.32
2 26.68% 3.75
3 15.74% 6.35
4 6.97% 14.36
5+ 3.43% 29.18
Over 2.5 26.14% Under 2.5 73.86%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 37.92%
Draw 34.64%
Away Win 27.45%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 26.14%
Under 2.5 73.86%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 34.19%
No 65.81%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.03% 24.81 10.3% 9.71 85.67% 1.17
-1.5 14.33% 6.98 — 85.67% 1.17
-1.0 14.33% 6.98 23.82% 4.2 61.85% 1.62
-0.5 38.15% 2.62 — 61.85% 1.62
0 (PK) 38.15% 2.62 33.05% 3.03 28.81% 3.47
+0.5 71.19% 1.4 — 28.81% 3.47
+1.0 71.19% 1.4 19.64% 5.09 9.16% 10.91
+1.5 90.84% 1.1 — 9.16% 10.91
+2.0 90.84% 1.1 7.0% 14.28 2.16% 46.34

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.