Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
63.91%
Fair Odds 1.56
Draw
22.24%
Fair Odds 4.5
Away Win
13.85%
Fair Odds 7.22
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 12.53% Fair Odds 7.98

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.56 —
Draw 4.5 —
Away Win 7.22 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 12.53% 7.98
2 2-0 12.28% 8.14
3 1-1 9.9% 10.1
4 2-1 9.7% 10.31
5 3-0 8.02% 12.46
6 0-0 6.39% 15.64
7 3-1 6.34% 15.78
8 0-1 5.05% 19.8
9 4-0 3.93% 25.44
10 1-2 3.91% 25.58
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.39%
15.64
5.05%
19.8
1.99%
50.13
0.53%
190.37
0.1%
963.39
0.02%
6097.56
1
12.53%
7.98
9.9%
10.1
3.91%
25.58
1.03%
97.13
0.2%
491.64
0.03%
3115.26
2
12.28%
8.14
9.7%
10.31
3.83%
26.1
1.01%
99.11
0.2%
501.76
0.03%
3174.6
3
8.02%
12.46
6.34%
15.78
2.5%
39.95
0.66%
151.7
0.13%
768.05
0.02%
4854.37
4
3.93%
25.44
3.11%
32.2
1.23%
81.52
0.32%
309.6
0.06%
1567.4
0.01%
9900.99
5
1.54%
64.89
1.22%
82.14
0.48%
207.94
0.13%
789.89
0.03%
4000.0
0.0%
25000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.53% · Fair: 65.25
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 85.91% 14.09%
1.5 58.31% 41.69%
2.5 31.25% 68.75%
3.5 13.57% 86.43%
4.5 4.91% 95.09%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 54.62% 45.38%
1.5 18.76% 81.24%
2.5 4.6% 95.4%
3.5 0.87% 99.13%
4.5 0.13% 99.87%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.39% 15.64
1 17.58% 5.69
2 24.17% 4.14
3 22.16% 4.51
4 15.23% 6.56
5+ 14.46% 6.91
Over 2.5 51.85% Under 2.5 48.15%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 63.91%
Draw 22.24%
Away Win 13.85%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 51.85%
Under 2.5 48.15%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 46.92%
No 53.08%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 19.8% 5.05 19.98% 5.01 60.22% 1.66
-1.5 39.78% 2.51 — 60.22% 1.66
-1.0 39.78% 2.51 25.08% 3.99 35.13% 2.85
-0.5 64.87% 1.54 — 35.13% 2.85
0 (PK) 64.87% 1.54 20.85% 4.8 14.28% 7.0
+0.5 85.72% 1.17 — 14.28% 7.0
+1.0 85.72% 1.17 10.11% 9.89 4.17% 23.96
+1.5 95.83% 1.04 — 4.17% 23.96
+2.0 95.83% 1.04 3.25% 30.81 0.93% 107.82

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.