Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
49.58%
Fair Odds 2.02
Draw
29.66%
Fair Odds 3.37
Away Win
20.75%
Fair Odds 4.82
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 16.04% Fair Odds 6.23

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.02 —
Draw 3.37 —
Away Win 4.82 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 16.04% 6.23
2 1-1 12.51% 7.99
3 0-0 11.88% 8.41
4 2-0 10.83% 9.23
5 0-1 9.27% 10.79
6 2-1 8.45% 11.84
7 1-2 4.88% 20.49
8 3-0 4.87% 20.52
9 3-1 3.8% 26.31
10 0-2 3.62% 27.66
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
11.88%
8.41
9.27%
10.79
3.62%
27.66
0.94%
106.39
0.18%
545.55
0.03%
3496.5
1
16.04%
6.23
12.51%
7.99
4.88%
20.49
1.27%
78.81
0.25%
404.2
0.04%
2590.67
2
10.83%
9.23
8.45%
11.84
3.29%
30.36
0.86%
116.75
0.17%
598.8
0.03%
3831.42
3
4.87%
20.52
3.8%
26.31
1.48%
67.46
0.39%
259.47
0.08%
1329.79
0.01%
8547.01
4
1.64%
60.8
1.28%
77.95
0.5%
199.88
0.13%
768.64
0.03%
3937.01
0.0%
25000.0
5
0.44%
225.17
0.35%
288.68
0.14%
740.19
0.04%
2849.0
0.01%
14705.88
0.0%
90909.09
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.28% · Fair: 351.99
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 74.08% 25.92%
1.5 39.08% 60.92%
2.5 15.46% 84.54%
3.5 4.82% 95.18%
4.5 1.24% 98.76%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 54.16% 45.84%
1.5 18.4% 81.6%
2.5 4.46% 95.54%
3.5 0.83% 99.17%
4.5 0.13% 99.87%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 11.88% 8.41
1 25.31% 3.95
2 26.96% 3.71
3 19.14% 5.22
4 10.19% 9.81
5+ 6.51% 15.35
Over 2.5 35.85% Under 2.5 64.15%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 49.58%
Draw 29.66%
Away Win 20.75%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 35.85%
Under 2.5 64.15%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 40.12%
No 59.88%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.99% 11.12 15.17% 6.59 75.84% 1.32
-1.5 24.16% 4.14 — 75.84% 1.32
-1.0 24.16% 4.14 26.11% 3.83 49.73% 2.01
-0.5 50.27% 1.99 — 49.73% 2.01
0 (PK) 50.27% 1.99 28.1% 3.56 21.63% 4.62
+0.5 78.37% 1.28 — 21.63% 4.62
+1.0 78.37% 1.28 15.09% 6.63 6.54% 15.28
+1.5 93.46% 1.07 — 6.54% 15.28
+2.0 93.46% 1.07 5.06% 19.75 1.48% 67.6

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.