Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
47.37%
Fair Odds 2.11
Draw
30.73%
Fair Odds 3.25
Away Win
21.91%
Fair Odds 4.56
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 16.35% Fair Odds 6.12

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.11 —
Draw 3.25 —
Away Win 4.56 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 16.35% 6.12
2 0-0 12.87% 7.77
3 1-1 12.75% 7.84
4 2-0 10.38% 9.63
5 0-1 10.04% 9.96
6 2-1 8.1% 12.35
7 1-2 4.97% 20.11
8 3-0 4.4% 22.75
9 0-2 3.92% 25.54
10 3-1 3.43% 29.17
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
12.87%
7.77
10.04%
9.96
3.92%
25.54
1.02%
98.21
0.2%
503.78
0.03%
3225.81
1
16.35%
6.12
12.75%
7.84
4.97%
20.11
1.29%
77.33
0.25%
396.51
0.04%
2544.53
2
10.38%
9.63
8.1%
12.35
3.16%
31.66
0.82%
121.79
0.16%
624.61
0.03%
4000.0
3
4.4%
22.75
3.43%
29.17
1.34%
74.79
0.35%
287.69
0.07%
1474.93
0.01%
9433.96
4
1.4%
71.66
1.09%
91.88
0.42%
235.57
0.11%
905.8
0.02%
4651.16
0.0%
29411.76
5
0.35%
282.17
0.28%
361.66
0.11%
927.64
0.03%
3571.43
0.01%
18181.82
0.0%
111111.11
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.21% · Fair: 465.77
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 71.92% 28.08%
1.5 36.25% 63.75%
2.5 13.6% 86.4%
3.5 4.02% 95.98%
4.5 0.97% 99.03%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 54.16% 45.84%
1.5 18.4% 81.6%
2.5 4.46% 95.54%
3.5 0.83% 99.17%
4.5 0.13% 99.87%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 12.87% 7.77
1 26.39% 3.79
2 27.05% 3.70
3 18.48% 5.41
4 9.47% 10.56
5+ 5.73% 17.46
Over 2.5 33.69% Under 2.5 66.31%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 47.37%
Draw 30.73%
Away Win 21.91%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 33.69%
Under 2.5 66.31%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 38.95%
No 61.05%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.81% 12.8 14.26% 7.01 77.92% 1.28
-1.5 22.08% 4.53 — 77.92% 1.28
-1.0 22.08% 4.53 25.9% 3.86 52.02% 1.92
-0.5 47.98% 2.08 — 52.02% 1.92
0 (PK) 47.98% 2.08 29.15% 3.43 22.87% 4.37
+0.5 77.13% 1.3 — 22.87% 4.37
+1.0 77.13% 1.3 15.91% 6.29 6.96% 14.37
+1.5 93.04% 1.07 — 6.96% 14.37
+2.0 93.04% 1.07 5.38% 18.59 1.58% 63.3

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.