Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
45.65%
Fair Odds 2.19
Draw
31.53%
Fair Odds 3.17
Away Win
22.82%
Fair Odds 4.38
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 16.54% Fair Odds 6.05

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.19 —
Draw 3.17 —
Away Win 4.38 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 16.54% 6.05
2 0-0 13.67% 7.32
3 1-1 12.9% 7.75
4 0-1 10.66% 9.38
5 2-0 10.01% 9.99
6 2-1 7.81% 12.81
7 1-2 5.03% 19.87
8 0-2 4.16% 24.05
9 3-0 4.04% 24.78
10 3-1 3.15% 31.77
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
13.67%
7.32
10.66%
9.38
4.16%
24.05
1.08%
92.49
0.21%
474.38
0.03%
3039.51
1
16.54%
6.05
12.9%
7.75
5.03%
19.87
1.31%
76.44
0.26%
392.0
0.04%
2512.56
2
10.01%
9.99
7.81%
12.81
3.04%
32.85
0.79%
126.34
0.15%
648.09
0.02%
4149.38
3
4.04%
24.78
3.15%
31.77
1.23%
81.45
0.32%
313.28
0.06%
1607.72
0.01%
10309.28
4
1.22%
81.91
0.95%
105.01
0.37%
269.25
0.1%
1035.2
0.02%
5319.15
0.0%
34482.76
5
0.3%
338.41
0.23%
433.84
0.09%
1112.35
0.02%
4273.5
0.0%
21739.13
0.0%
142857.14
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.17% · Fair: 580.05
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 70.18% 29.82%
1.5 34.1% 65.9%
2.5 12.27% 87.73%
3.5 3.46% 96.54%
4.5 0.8% 99.2%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 54.16% 45.84%
1.5 18.4% 81.6%
2.5 4.46% 95.54%
3.5 0.83% 99.17%
4.5 0.13% 99.87%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 13.67% 7.32
1 27.20% 3.68
2 27.07% 3.69
3 17.95% 5.57
4 8.93% 11.20
5+ 5.18% 19.32
Over 2.5 32.06% Under 2.5 67.94%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 45.65%
Draw 31.53%
Away Win 22.82%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 32.06%
Under 2.5 67.94%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 38.01%
No 61.99%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.98% 14.33 13.55% 7.38 79.47% 1.26
-1.5 20.53% 4.87 — 79.47% 1.26
-1.0 20.53% 4.87 25.67% 3.89 53.79% 1.86
-0.5 46.21% 2.16 — 53.79% 1.86
0 (PK) 46.21% 2.16 29.95% 3.34 23.84% 4.19
+0.5 76.16% 1.31 — 23.84% 4.19
+1.0 76.16% 1.31 16.55% 6.04 7.29% 13.72
+1.5 92.71% 1.08 — 7.29% 13.72
+2.0 92.71% 1.08 5.63% 17.76 1.66% 60.26

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.