Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
56.79%
Fair Odds 1.76
Draw
26.19%
Fair Odds 3.82
Away Win
17.02%
Fair Odds 5.87
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 14.84% Fair Odds 6.74

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.76 —
Draw 3.82 —
Away Win 5.87 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 14.84% 6.74
2 2-0 12.02% 8.32
3 1-1 11.43% 8.75
4 2-1 9.26% 10.8
5 0-0 9.16% 10.91
6 0-1 7.06% 14.17
7 3-0 6.49% 15.4
8 3-1 5.0% 20.0
9 1-2 4.4% 22.72
10 2-2 3.56% 28.06
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.16%
10.91
7.06%
14.17
2.72%
36.81
0.7%
143.43
0.13%
745.16
0.02%
4830.92
1
14.84%
6.74
11.43%
8.75
4.4%
22.72
1.13%
88.53
0.22%
459.98
0.03%
2985.07
2
12.02%
8.32
9.26%
10.8
3.56%
28.06
0.91%
109.3
0.18%
567.86
0.03%
3690.04
3
6.49%
15.4
5.0%
20.0
1.92%
51.95
0.49%
202.43
0.1%
1051.52
0.01%
6849.32
4
2.63%
38.03
2.02%
49.39
0.78%
128.29
0.2%
499.75
0.04%
2597.4
0.01%
16949.15
5
0.85%
117.37
0.66%
152.44
0.25%
395.88
0.06%
1543.21
0.01%
8000.0
0.0%
52631.58
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.65% · Fair: 152.7
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 80.21% 19.79%
1.5 48.15% 51.85%
2.5 22.18% 77.82%
3.5 8.16% 91.84%
4.5 2.48% 97.52%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 53.7% 46.3%
1.5 18.05% 81.95%
2.5 4.32% 95.68%
3.5 0.8% 99.2%
4.5 0.12% 99.88%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 9.16% 10.91
1 21.90% 4.57
2 26.17% 3.82
3 20.85% 4.80
4 12.46% 8.03
5+ 9.46% 10.57
Over 2.5 42.77% Under 2.5 57.23%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 56.79%
Draw 26.19%
Away Win 17.02%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 42.77%
Under 2.5 57.23%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 43.07%
No 56.93%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 13.54% 7.38 17.87% 5.6 68.59% 1.46
-1.5 31.41% 3.18 — 68.59% 1.46
-1.0 31.41% 3.18 26.24% 3.81 42.35% 2.36
-0.5 57.65% 1.73 — 42.35% 2.36
0 (PK) 57.65% 1.73 24.69% 4.05 17.65% 5.66
+0.5 82.35% 1.21 — 17.65% 5.66
+1.0 82.35% 1.21 12.47% 8.02 5.18% 19.3
+1.5 94.82% 1.05 — 5.18% 19.3
+2.0 94.82% 1.05 4.04% 24.77 1.14% 87.41

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.