Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
42.64%
Fair Odds 2.35
Draw
33.09%
Fair Odds 3.02
Away Win
24.27%
Fair Odds 4.12
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 16.95% Fair Odds 5.9

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.35 —
Draw 3.02 —
Away Win 4.12 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 16.95% 5.9
2 0-0 15.41% 6.49
3 1-1 13.05% 7.66
4 0-1 11.87% 8.43
5 2-0 9.32% 10.72
6 2-1 7.18% 13.93
7 1-2 5.03% 19.9
8 0-2 4.57% 21.89
9 3-0 3.42% 29.25
10 2-2 2.76% 36.18
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
15.41%
6.49
11.87%
8.43
4.57%
21.89
1.17%
85.27
0.23%
443.07
0.03%
2873.56
1
16.95%
5.9
13.05%
7.66
5.03%
19.9
1.29%
77.52
0.25%
402.74
0.04%
2617.8
2
9.32%
10.72
7.18%
13.93
2.76%
36.18
0.71%
140.94
0.14%
732.06
0.02%
4761.9
3
3.42%
29.25
2.63%
37.99
1.01%
98.66
0.26%
384.47
0.05%
1996.01
0.01%
12987.01
4
0.94%
106.36
0.72%
138.12
0.28%
358.81
0.07%
1398.6
0.01%
7246.38
0.0%
47619.05
5
0.21%
483.56
0.16%
627.75
0.06%
1631.32
0.02%
6369.43
0.0%
33333.33
0.0%
200000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.11% · Fair: 893.66
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 66.71% 33.29%
1.5 30.1% 69.9%
2.5 9.96% 90.04%
3.5 2.57% 97.43%
4.5 0.54% 99.46%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 53.7% 46.3%
1.5 18.05% 81.95%
2.5 4.32% 95.68%
3.5 0.8% 99.2%
4.5 0.12% 99.88%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 15.41% 6.49
1 28.82% 3.47
2 26.95% 3.71
3 16.80% 5.95
4 7.85% 12.73
5+ 4.17% 23.99
Over 2.5 28.82% Under 2.5 71.18%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 42.64%
Draw 33.09%
Away Win 24.27%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 28.82%
Under 2.5 71.18%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 35.82%
No 64.18%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.61% 17.84 12.25% 8.16 82.14% 1.22
-1.5 17.86% 5.6 — 82.14% 1.22
-1.0 17.86% 5.6 25.22% 3.96 56.92% 1.76
-0.5 43.08% 2.32 — 56.92% 1.76
0 (PK) 43.08% 2.32 31.51% 3.17 25.41% 3.93
+0.5 74.59% 1.34 — 25.41% 3.93
+1.0 74.59% 1.34 17.66% 5.66 7.76% 12.89
+1.5 92.24% 1.08 — 7.76% 12.89
+2.0 92.24% 1.08 6.0% 16.66 1.76% 56.96

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.