Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
37.0%
Fair Odds 2.7
Draw
35.61%
Fair Odds 2.81
Away Win
27.39%
Fair Odds 3.65
Most Likely Score
0 - 0
Probability 18.45% Fair Odds 5.42

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.7 —
Draw 2.81 —
Away Win 3.65 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-0 18.45% 5.42
2 1-0 16.98% 5.89
3 0-1 14.21% 7.04
4 1-1 13.07% 7.65
5 2-0 7.81% 12.81
6 2-1 6.01% 16.63
7 0-2 5.47% 18.28
8 1-2 5.03% 19.87
9 3-0 2.39% 41.76
10 2-2 2.31% 43.2
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
18.45%
5.42
14.21%
7.04
5.47%
18.28
1.4%
71.23
0.27%
369.96
0.04%
2403.85
1
16.98%
5.89
13.07%
7.65
5.03%
19.87
1.29%
77.42
0.25%
402.25
0.04%
2610.97
2
7.81%
12.81
6.01%
16.63
2.31%
43.2
0.59%
168.29
0.11%
874.13
0.02%
5681.82
3
2.39%
41.76
1.84%
54.23
0.71%
140.86
0.18%
548.85
0.04%
2849.0
0.01%
18518.52
4
0.55%
181.55
0.42%
235.79
0.16%
612.37
0.04%
2386.63
0.01%
12345.68
0.0%
83333.33
5
0.1%
987.17
0.08%
1282.05
0.03%
3333.33
0.01%
12987.01
0.0%
66666.67
0.0%
500000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.05% · Fair: 1865.67
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 60.15% 39.85%
1.5 23.48% 76.52%
2.5 6.62% 93.38%
3.5 1.45% 98.55%
4.5 0.26% 99.74%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 53.7% 46.3%
1.5 18.05% 81.95%
2.5 4.32% 95.68%
3.5 0.8% 99.2%
4.5 0.12% 99.88%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 18.45% 5.42
1 31.18% 3.21
2 26.35% 3.80
3 14.84% 6.74
4 6.27% 15.94
5+ 2.90% 34.51
Over 2.5 24.01% Under 2.5 75.99%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 37.00%
Draw 35.61%
Away Win 27.39%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 24.01%
Under 2.5 75.99%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 32.3%
No 67.7%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.62% 27.64 9.82% 10.18 86.56% 1.16
-1.5 13.44% 7.44 — 86.56% 1.16
-1.0 13.44% 7.44 23.74% 4.21 62.82% 1.59
-0.5 37.18% 2.69 — 62.82% 1.59
0 (PK) 37.18% 2.69 34.03% 2.94 28.79% 3.47
+0.5 71.21% 1.4 — 28.79% 3.47
+1.0 71.21% 1.4 19.87% 5.03 8.92% 11.21
+1.5 91.08% 1.1 — 8.92% 11.21
+2.0 91.08% 1.1 6.88% 14.53 2.04% 49.13

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.