Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
40.73%
Fair Odds 2.46
Draw
34.15%
Fair Odds 2.93
Away Win
25.13%
Fair Odds 3.98
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 17.2% Fair Odds 5.82

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.46 —
Draw 2.93 —
Away Win 3.98 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 17.2% 5.82
2 0-0 16.7% 5.99
3 1-1 13.07% 7.65
4 0-1 12.69% 7.88
5 2-0 8.86% 11.29
6 2-1 6.73% 14.86
7 1-2 4.97% 20.13
8 0-2 4.82% 20.74
9 3-0 3.04% 32.89
10 2-2 2.56% 39.1
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
16.7%
5.99
12.69%
7.88
4.82%
20.74
1.22%
81.87
0.23%
430.85
0.04%
2832.86
1
17.2%
5.82
13.07%
7.65
4.97%
20.13
1.26%
79.48
0.24%
418.24
0.04%
2754.82
2
8.86%
11.29
6.73%
14.86
2.56%
39.1
0.65%
154.32
0.12%
812.35
0.02%
5347.59
3
3.04%
32.89
2.31%
43.27
0.88%
113.87
0.22%
449.44
0.04%
2364.07
0.01%
15625.0
4
0.78%
127.71
0.6%
168.04
0.23%
442.28
0.06%
1745.2
0.01%
9174.31
0.0%
58823.53
5
0.16%
619.96
0.12%
815.66
0.05%
2145.92
0.01%
8474.58
0.0%
45454.55
0.0%
333333.33
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.08% · Fair: 1204.82
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 64.3% 35.7%
1.5 27.53% 72.47%
2.5 8.59% 91.41%
3.5 2.09% 97.91%
4.5 0.41% 99.59%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 53.23% 46.77%
1.5 17.69% 82.31%
2.5 4.18% 95.82%
3.5 0.76% 99.24%
4.5 0.11% 99.89%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 16.70% 5.99
1 29.89% 3.35
2 26.75% 3.74
3 15.96% 6.27
4 7.14% 14.00
5+ 3.57% 28.02
Over 2.5 26.67% Under 2.5 73.33%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 40.73%
Draw 34.15%
Away Win 25.13%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 26.67%
Under 2.5 73.33%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 34.23%
No 65.77%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.82% 20.76 11.41% 8.77 83.78% 1.19
-1.5 16.22% 6.16 — 83.78% 1.19
-1.0 16.22% 6.16 24.87% 4.02 58.91% 1.7
-0.5 41.09% 2.43 — 58.91% 1.7
0 (PK) 41.09% 2.43 32.56% 3.07 26.35% 3.79
+0.5 73.65% 1.36 — 26.35% 3.79
+1.0 73.65% 1.36 18.35% 5.45 8.01% 12.49
+1.5 91.99% 1.09 — 8.01% 12.49
+2.0 91.99% 1.09 6.21% 16.1 1.8% 55.66

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.