Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
46.39%
Fair Odds 2.16
Draw
31.66%
Fair Odds 3.16
Away Win
21.95%
Fair Odds 4.56
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 17.04% Fair Odds 5.87

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.16 —
Draw 3.16 —
Away Win 4.56 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 17.04% 5.87
2 0-0 14.09% 7.1
3 1-1 12.78% 7.82
4 0-1 10.56% 9.47
5 2-0 10.31% 9.7
6 2-1 7.73% 12.93
7 1-2 4.79% 20.86
8 3-0 4.16% 24.04
9 0-2 3.96% 25.24
10 3-1 3.12% 32.06
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
14.09%
7.1
10.56%
9.47
3.96%
25.24
0.99%
100.97
0.19%
538.5
0.03%
3584.23
1
17.04%
5.87
12.78%
7.82
4.79%
20.86
1.2%
83.44
0.22%
445.04
0.03%
2967.36
2
10.31%
9.7
7.73%
12.93
2.9%
34.48
0.73%
137.93
0.14%
735.84
0.02%
4901.96
3
4.16%
24.04
3.12%
32.06
1.17%
85.49
0.29%
342.0
0.05%
1824.82
0.01%
12195.12
4
1.26%
79.48
0.94%
105.98
0.35%
282.65
0.09%
1129.94
0.02%
6024.1
0.0%
40000.0
5
0.3%
328.41
0.23%
438.02
0.09%
1168.22
0.02%
4672.9
0.0%
25000.0
0.0%
166666.67
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.17% · Fair: 589.62
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 70.18% 29.82%
1.5 34.1% 65.9%
2.5 12.27% 87.73%
3.5 3.46% 96.54%
4.5 0.8% 99.2%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 52.76% 47.24%
1.5 17.34% 82.66%
2.5 4.05% 95.95%
3.5 0.73% 99.27%
4.5 0.11% 99.89%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 14.09% 7.10
1 27.61% 3.62
2 27.06% 3.70
3 17.68% 5.66
4 8.66% 11.55
5+ 4.91% 20.36
Over 2.5 31.25% Under 2.5 68.75%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 46.39%
Draw 31.66%
Away Win 21.95%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 31.25%
Under 2.5 68.75%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 37.03%
No 62.97%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.13% 14.02 13.81% 7.24 79.06% 1.26
-1.5 20.94% 4.78 — 79.06% 1.26
-1.0 20.94% 4.78 26.04% 3.84 53.02% 1.89
-0.5 46.98% 2.13 — 53.02% 1.89
0 (PK) 46.98% 2.13 30.08% 3.32 22.94% 4.36
+0.5 77.06% 1.3 — 22.94% 4.36
+1.0 77.06% 1.3 16.14% 6.2 6.8% 14.71
+1.5 93.2% 1.07 — 6.8% 14.71
+2.0 93.2% 1.07 5.3% 18.85 1.5% 66.87

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.