Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
53.0%
Fair Odds 1.89
Draw
28.65%
Fair Odds 3.49
Away Win
18.35%
Fair Odds 5.45
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 16.49% Fair Odds 6.06

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.89 —
Draw 3.49 —
Away Win 5.45 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 16.49% 6.06
2 1-1 12.04% 8.31
3 2-0 11.79% 8.48
4 0-0 11.53% 8.67
5 2-1 8.61% 11.62
6 0-1 8.42% 11.88
7 3-0 5.62% 17.79
8 1-2 4.39% 22.76
9 3-1 4.1% 24.37
10 2-2 3.14% 31.83
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
11.53%
8.67
8.42%
11.88
3.07%
32.54
0.75%
133.74
0.14%
732.6
0.02%
5025.13
1
16.49%
6.06
12.04%
8.31
4.39%
22.76
1.07%
93.53
0.2%
512.56
0.03%
3508.77
2
11.79%
8.48
8.61%
11.62
3.14%
31.83
0.76%
130.8
0.14%
716.85
0.02%
4901.96
3
5.62%
17.79
4.1%
24.37
1.5%
66.77
0.36%
274.42
0.07%
1503.76
0.01%
10309.28
4
2.01%
49.77
1.47%
68.18
0.54%
186.78
0.13%
767.46
0.02%
4201.68
0.0%
28571.43
5
0.57%
174.0
0.42%
238.38
0.15%
653.17
0.04%
2680.97
0.01%
14705.88
0.0%
100000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.37% · Fair: 273.3
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 76.07% 23.93%
1.5 41.85% 58.15%
2.5 17.38% 82.62%
3.5 5.72% 94.28%
4.5 1.55% 98.45%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 51.81% 48.19%
1.5 16.63% 83.37%
2.5 3.79% 96.21%
3.5 0.66% 99.34%
4.5 0.09% 99.91%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 11.53% 8.67
1 24.91% 4.01
2 26.90% 3.72
3 19.37% 5.16
4 10.46% 9.56
5+ 6.82% 14.65
Over 2.5 36.65% Under 2.5 63.35%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 53.00%
Draw 28.65%
Away Win 18.35%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 36.65%
Under 2.5 63.35%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 39.41%
No 60.59%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.6% 9.44 16.47% 6.07 72.93% 1.37
-1.5 27.07% 3.69 — 72.93% 1.37
-1.0 27.07% 3.69 26.73% 3.74 46.2% 2.16
-0.5 53.8% 1.86 — 46.2% 2.16
0 (PK) 53.8% 1.86 27.1% 3.69 19.1% 5.24
+0.5 80.9% 1.24 — 19.1% 5.24
+1.0 80.9% 1.24 13.65% 7.33 5.45% 18.35
+1.5 94.55% 1.06 — 5.45% 18.35
+2.0 94.55% 1.06 4.29% 23.3 1.16% 86.3

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.