Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
36.25%
Fair Odds 2.76
Draw
36.78%
Fair Odds 2.72
Away Win
26.97%
Fair Odds 3.71
Most Likely Score
0 - 0
Probability 20.19% Fair Odds 4.95

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.76 —
Draw 2.72 —
Away Win 3.71 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-0 20.19% 4.95
2 1-0 17.57% 5.69
3 0-1 14.74% 6.78
4 1-1 12.82% 7.8
5 2-0 7.64% 13.09
6 2-1 5.58% 17.93
7 0-2 5.38% 18.59
8 1-2 4.68% 21.37
9 3-0 2.22% 45.13
10 2-2 2.04% 49.12
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
20.19%
4.95
14.74%
6.78
5.38%
18.59
1.31%
76.39
0.24%
418.59
0.03%
2865.33
1
17.57%
5.69
12.82%
7.8
4.68%
21.37
1.14%
87.81
0.21%
481.23
0.03%
3300.33
2
7.64%
13.09
5.58%
17.93
2.04%
49.12
0.5%
201.86
0.09%
1106.19
0.01%
7575.76
3
2.22%
45.13
1.62%
61.82
0.59%
169.38
0.14%
695.89
0.03%
3816.79
0.0%
26315.79
4
0.48%
207.51
0.35%
284.25
0.13%
778.82
0.03%
3205.13
0.01%
17543.86
0.0%
125000.0
5
0.08%
1191.9
0.06%
1633.99
0.02%
4484.3
0.01%
18518.52
0.0%
100000.0
0.0%
1000000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.04% · Fair: 2475.25
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 58.1% 41.9%
1.5 21.66% 78.34%
2.5 5.8% 94.2%
3.5 1.2% 98.8%
4.5 0.2% 99.8%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 51.81% 48.19%
1.5 16.63% 83.37%
2.5 3.79% 96.21%
3.5 0.66% 99.34%
4.5 0.09% 99.91%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 20.19% 4.95
1 32.30% 3.10
2 25.84% 3.87
3 13.78% 7.26
4 5.51% 18.14
5+ 2.37% 42.24
Over 2.5 21.66% Under 2.5 78.34%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 36.25%
Draw 36.78%
Away Win 26.97%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 21.66%
Under 2.5 78.34%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 30.1%
No 69.9%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.25% 30.81 9.39% 10.65 87.36% 1.14
-1.5 12.64% 7.91 — 87.36% 1.14
-1.0 12.64% 7.91 23.77% 4.21 63.6% 1.57
-0.5 36.4% 2.75 — 63.6% 1.57
0 (PK) 36.4% 2.75 35.2% 2.84 28.4% 3.52
+0.5 71.6% 1.4 — 28.4% 3.52
+1.0 71.6% 1.4 19.94% 5.01 8.46% 11.82
+1.5 91.54% 1.09 — 8.46% 11.82
+2.0 91.54% 1.09 6.61% 15.12 1.85% 54.19

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.