Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
51.65%
Fair Odds 1.94
Draw
29.49%
Fair Odds 3.39
Away Win
18.86%
Fair Odds 5.3
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 16.95% Fair Odds 5.9

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.94 —
Draw 3.39 —
Away Win 5.3 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 16.95% 5.9
2 0-0 12.37% 8.08
3 1-1 12.2% 8.2
4 2-0 11.61% 8.62
5 0-1 8.91% 11.23
6 2-1 8.36% 11.97
7 3-0 5.3% 18.87
8 1-2 4.39% 22.77
9 3-1 3.82% 26.2
10 0-2 3.21% 31.19
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
12.37%
8.08
8.91%
11.23
3.21%
31.19
0.77%
129.97
0.14%
722.02
0.02%
5025.13
1
16.95%
5.9
12.2%
8.2
4.39%
22.77
1.05%
94.87
0.19%
527.15
0.03%
3663.0
2
11.61%
8.62
8.36%
11.97
3.01%
33.24
0.72%
138.48
0.13%
769.23
0.02%
5347.59
3
5.3%
18.87
3.82%
26.2
1.37%
72.79
0.33%
303.31
0.06%
1683.5
0.01%
11764.71
4
1.82%
55.08
1.31%
76.5
0.47%
212.49
0.11%
885.74
0.02%
4926.11
0.0%
34482.76
5
0.5%
201.05
0.36%
279.17
0.13%
775.8
0.03%
3236.25
0.01%
17857.14
0.0%
125000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.3% · Fair: 334.34
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 74.59% 25.41%
1.5 39.78% 60.22%
2.5 15.93% 84.07%
3.5 5.04% 94.96%
4.5 1.31% 98.69%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 51.32% 48.68%
1.5 16.28% 83.72%
2.5 3.66% 96.34%
3.5 0.63% 99.37%
4.5 0.09% 99.91%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 12.37% 8.08
1 25.85% 3.87
2 27.01% 3.70
3 18.82% 5.31
4 9.83% 10.17
5+ 6.11% 16.36
Over 2.5 34.77% Under 2.5 65.23%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 51.65%
Draw 29.49%
Away Win 18.86%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 34.77%
Under 2.5 65.23%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 38.28%
No 61.72%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 9.69% 10.32 15.93% 6.28 74.38% 1.34
-1.5 25.62% 3.9 — 74.38% 1.34
-1.0 25.62% 3.9 26.8% 3.73 47.58% 2.1
-0.5 52.42% 1.91 — 47.58% 2.1
0 (PK) 52.42% 1.91 27.93% 3.58 19.65% 5.09
+0.5 80.35% 1.24 — 19.65% 5.09
+1.0 80.35% 1.24 14.08% 7.1 5.57% 17.94
+1.5 94.43% 1.06 — 5.57% 17.94
+2.0 94.43% 1.06 4.4% 22.73 1.17% 85.2

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.