Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
40.09%
Fair Odds 2.49
Draw
35.21%
Fair Odds 2.84
Away Win
24.7%
Fair Odds 4.05
Most Likely Score
0 - 0
Probability 18.27% Fair Odds 5.47

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.49 —
Draw 2.84 —
Away Win 4.05 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-0 18.27% 5.47
2 1-0 17.9% 5.59
3 0-1 13.15% 7.6
4 1-1 12.89% 7.76
5 2-0 8.77% 11.4
6 2-1 6.32% 15.83
7 0-2 4.74% 21.12
8 1-2 4.64% 21.55
9 3-0 2.87% 34.9
10 2-2 2.27% 43.98
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
18.27%
5.47
13.15%
7.6
4.74%
21.12
1.14%
88.0
0.2%
488.76
0.03%
3389.83
1
17.9%
5.59
12.89%
7.76
4.64%
21.55
1.11%
89.79
0.2%
498.75
0.03%
3460.21
2
8.77%
11.4
6.32%
15.83
2.27%
43.98
0.55%
183.25
0.1%
1018.33
0.01%
7092.2
3
2.87%
34.9
2.06%
48.47
0.74%
134.63
0.18%
560.85
0.03%
3115.26
0.0%
21739.13
4
0.7%
142.43
0.51%
197.82
0.18%
549.45
0.04%
2288.33
0.01%
12658.23
0.0%
90909.09
5
0.14%
726.74
0.1%
1009.08
0.04%
2801.12
0.01%
11627.91
0.0%
66666.67
0.0%
500000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.06% · Fair: 1569.86
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 62.47% 37.53%
1.5 25.69% 74.31%
2.5 7.67% 92.33%
3.5 1.78% 98.22%
4.5 0.34% 99.66%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 51.32% 48.68%
1.5 16.28% 83.72%
2.5 3.66% 96.34%
3.5 0.63% 99.37%
4.5 0.09% 99.91%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 18.27% 5.47
1 31.06% 3.22
2 26.40% 3.79
3 14.96% 6.69
4 6.36% 15.73
5+ 2.96% 33.77
Over 2.5 24.28% Under 2.5 75.72%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 40.09%
Draw 35.21%
Away Win 24.70%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 24.28%
Under 2.5 75.72%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 32.06%
No 67.94%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.4% 22.73 11.03% 9.07 84.57% 1.18
-1.5 15.43% 6.48 — 84.57% 1.18
-1.0 15.43% 6.48 25.01% 4.0 59.57% 1.68
-0.5 40.43% 2.47 — 59.57% 1.68
0 (PK) 40.43% 2.47 33.62% 2.97 25.95% 3.85
+0.5 74.05% 1.35 — 25.95% 3.85
+1.0 74.05% 1.35 18.37% 5.44 7.58% 13.2
+1.5 92.42% 1.08 — 7.58% 13.2
+2.0 92.42% 1.08 5.95% 16.8 1.62% 61.57

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.