Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
49.41%
Fair Odds 2.02
Draw
30.79%
Fair Odds 3.25
Away Win
19.8%
Fair Odds 5.05
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 17.5% Fair Odds 5.72

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.02 —
Draw 3.25 —
Away Win 5.05 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 17.5% 5.72
2 0-0 13.67% 7.32
3 1-1 12.42% 8.05
4 2-0 11.2% 8.93
5 0-1 9.71% 10.3
6 2-1 7.95% 12.58
7 3-0 4.78% 20.93
8 1-2 4.41% 22.68
9 0-2 3.45% 29.02
10 3-1 3.39% 29.48
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
13.67%
7.32
9.71%
10.3
3.45%
29.02
0.82%
122.64
0.14%
691.09
0.02%
4854.37
1
17.5%
5.72
12.42%
8.05
4.41%
22.68
1.04%
95.81
0.19%
539.67
0.03%
3802.28
2
11.2%
8.93
7.95%
12.58
2.82%
35.43
0.67%
149.7
0.12%
843.17
0.02%
5952.38
3
4.78%
20.93
3.39%
29.48
1.2%
83.04
0.29%
350.88
0.05%
1976.28
0.01%
13888.89
4
1.53%
65.41
1.09%
92.12
0.39%
259.47
0.09%
1096.49
0.02%
6172.84
0.0%
43478.26
5
0.39%
255.49
0.28%
359.84
0.1%
1013.17
0.02%
4291.85
0.0%
24390.24
0.0%
166666.67
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.22% · Fair: 462.32
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 72.2% 27.8%
1.5 36.61% 63.39%
2.5 13.83% 86.17%
3.5 4.11% 95.89%
4.5 1.0% 99.0%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 50.84% 49.16%
1.5 15.93% 84.07%
2.5 3.54% 96.46%
3.5 0.6% 99.4%
4.5 0.08% 99.92%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 13.67% 7.32
1 27.20% 3.68
2 27.07% 3.69
3 17.95% 5.57
4 8.93% 11.20
5+ 5.18% 19.32
Over 2.5 32.06% Under 2.5 67.94%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 49.41%
Draw 30.79%
Away Win 19.80%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 32.06%
Under 2.5 67.94%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 36.7%
No 63.3%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.37% 11.95 15.0% 6.67 76.63% 1.3
-1.5 23.37% 4.28 — 76.63% 1.3
-1.0 23.37% 4.28 26.75% 3.74 49.89% 2.0
-0.5 50.11% 2.0 — 49.89% 2.0
0 (PK) 50.11% 2.0 29.22% 3.42 20.67% 4.84
+0.5 79.33% 1.26 — 20.67% 4.84
+1.0 79.33% 1.26 14.84% 6.74 5.83% 17.14
+1.5 94.17% 1.06 — 5.83% 17.14
+2.0 94.17% 1.06 4.62% 21.67 1.22% 82.07

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.