Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
56.61%
Fair Odds 1.77
Draw
27.13%
Fair Odds 3.69
Away Win
16.26%
Fair Odds 6.15
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 16.39% Fair Odds 6.1

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.77 —
Draw 3.69 —
Away Win 6.15 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 16.39% 6.1
2 2-0 12.62% 7.92
3 1-1 11.48% 8.71
4 0-0 10.65% 9.39
5 2-1 8.84% 11.32
6 0-1 7.45% 13.42
7 3-0 6.48% 15.43
8 3-1 4.54% 22.04
9 1-2 4.02% 24.9
10 2-2 3.09% 32.33
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.65%
9.39
7.45%
13.42
2.61%
38.34
0.61%
164.31
0.11%
938.97
0.01%
6711.41
1
16.39%
6.1
11.48%
8.71
4.02%
24.9
0.94%
106.7
0.16%
609.76
0.02%
4347.83
2
12.62%
7.92
8.84%
11.32
3.09%
32.33
0.72%
138.56
0.13%
791.77
0.02%
5649.72
3
6.48%
15.43
4.54%
22.04
1.59%
62.98
0.37%
269.91
0.06%
1543.21
0.01%
10989.01
4
2.49%
40.08
1.75%
57.26
0.61%
163.61
0.14%
701.26
0.03%
4000.0
0.0%
28571.43
5
0.77%
130.14
0.54%
185.91
0.19%
531.07
0.04%
2277.9
0.01%
12987.01
0.0%
90909.09
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.51% · Fair: 194.7
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 78.56% 21.44%
1.5 45.55% 54.45%
2.5 20.13% 79.87%
3.5 7.08% 92.92%
4.5 2.05% 97.95%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 50.34% 49.66%
1.5 15.58% 84.42%
2.5 3.41% 96.59%
3.5 0.58% 99.42%
4.5 0.08% 99.92%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 10.65% 9.39
1 23.85% 4.19
2 26.71% 3.74
3 19.94% 5.01
4 11.17% 8.95
5+ 7.69% 13.00
Over 2.5 38.8% Under 2.5 61.2%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 56.61%
Draw 27.13%
Away Win 16.26%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 38.8%
Under 2.5 61.2%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 39.55%
No 60.45%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 12.72% 7.86 17.82% 5.61 69.46% 1.44
-1.5 30.54% 3.27 — 69.46% 1.44
-1.0 30.54% 3.27 26.97% 3.71 42.49% 2.35
-0.5 57.51% 1.74 — 42.49% 2.35
0 (PK) 57.51% 1.74 25.61% 3.9 16.88% 5.92
+0.5 83.12% 1.2 — 16.88% 5.92
+1.0 83.12% 1.2 12.26% 8.16 4.62% 21.62
+1.5 95.38% 1.05 — 4.62% 21.62
+2.0 95.38% 1.05 3.68% 27.16 0.94% 106.04

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.