Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
47.57%
Fair Odds 2.1
Draw
32.23%
Fair Odds 3.1
Away Win
20.2%
Fair Odds 4.95
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 18.34% Fair Odds 5.45

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.1 —
Draw 3.1 —
Away Win 4.95 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 18.34% 5.45
2 0-0 15.41% 6.49
3 1-1 12.47% 8.02
4 2-0 10.91% 9.16
5 0-1 10.48% 9.54
6 2-1 7.42% 13.48
7 3-0 4.33% 23.1
8 1-2 4.24% 23.58
9 0-2 3.56% 28.06
10 3-1 2.94% 33.97
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
15.41%
6.49
10.48%
9.54
3.56%
28.06
0.81%
123.81
0.14%
728.33
0.02%
5347.59
1
18.34%
5.45
12.47%
8.02
4.24%
23.58
0.96%
104.04
0.16%
612.0
0.02%
4504.5
2
10.91%
9.16
7.42%
13.48
2.52%
39.64
0.57%
174.86
0.1%
1028.81
0.01%
7575.76
3
4.33%
23.1
2.94%
33.97
1.0%
99.92
0.23%
440.92
0.04%
2590.67
0.01%
19230.77
4
1.29%
77.65
0.88%
114.19
0.3%
335.91
0.07%
1481.48
0.01%
8695.65
0.0%
62500.0
5
0.31%
326.26
0.21%
479.85
0.07%
1410.44
0.02%
6211.18
0.0%
37037.04
0.0%
250000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.15% · Fair: 660.07
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 69.58% 30.42%
1.5 33.38% 66.62%
2.5 11.84% 88.16%
3.5 3.29% 96.71%
4.5 0.75% 99.25%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 49.34% 50.66%
1.5 14.89% 85.11%
2.5 3.18% 96.82%
3.5 0.52% 99.48%
4.5 0.07% 99.93%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 15.41% 6.49
1 28.82% 3.47
2 26.95% 3.71
3 16.80% 5.95
4 7.85% 12.73
5+ 4.17% 23.99
Over 2.5 28.82% Under 2.5 71.18%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 47.57%
Draw 32.23%
Away Win 20.20%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 28.82%
Under 2.5 71.18%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 34.33%
No 65.67%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.22% 13.85 14.17% 7.06 78.61% 1.27
-1.5 21.39% 4.67 — 78.61% 1.27
-1.0 21.39% 4.67 26.83% 3.73 51.78% 1.93
-0.5 48.22% 2.07 — 51.78% 1.93
0 (PK) 48.22% 2.07 30.65% 3.26 21.13% 4.73
+0.5 78.87% 1.27 — 21.13% 4.73
+1.0 78.87% 1.27 15.33% 6.52 5.8% 17.25
+1.5 94.2% 1.06 — 5.8% 17.25
+2.0 94.2% 1.06 4.63% 21.61 1.17% 85.47

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.