Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
57.91%
Fair Odds 1.73
Draw
26.93%
Fair Odds 3.71
Away Win
15.17%
Fair Odds 6.59
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 17.0% Fair Odds 5.88

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.73 —
Draw 3.71 —
Away Win 6.59 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 17.0% 5.88
2 2-0 13.18% 7.59
3 1-1 11.22% 8.91
4 0-0 10.97% 9.12
5 2-1 8.7% 11.5
6 0-1 7.24% 13.81
7 3-0 6.81% 14.69
8 3-1 4.49% 22.25
9 1-2 3.7% 27.0
10 2-2 2.87% 34.84
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.97%
9.12
7.24%
13.81
2.39%
41.85
0.53%
190.26
0.09%
1153.4
0.01%
8771.93
1
17.0%
5.88
11.22%
8.91
3.7%
27.0
0.81%
122.74
0.13%
744.05
0.02%
5649.72
2
13.18%
7.59
8.7%
11.5
2.87%
34.84
0.63%
158.38
0.1%
959.69
0.01%
7246.38
3
6.81%
14.69
4.49%
22.25
1.48%
67.44
0.33%
306.56
0.05%
1858.74
0.01%
14084.51
4
2.64%
37.9
1.74%
57.43
0.57%
174.03
0.13%
791.14
0.02%
4784.69
0.0%
35714.29
5
0.82%
122.26
0.54%
185.25
0.18%
561.48
0.04%
2551.02
0.01%
15384.62
0.0%
111111.11
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.53% · Fair: 189.72
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 78.78% 21.22%
1.5 45.88% 54.12%
2.5 20.38% 79.62%
3.5 7.21% 92.79%
4.5 2.1% 97.9%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 48.31% 51.69%
1.5 14.2% 85.8%
2.5 2.95% 97.05%
3.5 0.47% 99.53%
4.5 0.06% 99.94%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 10.97% 9.12
1 24.24% 4.12
2 26.79% 3.73
3 19.73% 5.07
4 10.90% 9.17
5+ 7.36% 13.59
Over 2.5 38.0% Under 2.5 62.0%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 57.91%
Draw 26.93%
Away Win 15.17%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 38.0%
Under 2.5 62.0%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 38.06%
No 61.94%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 13.24% 7.55 18.29% 5.47 68.47% 1.46
-1.5 31.53% 3.17 — 68.47% 1.46
-1.0 31.53% 3.17 27.32% 3.66 41.15% 2.43
-0.5 58.85% 1.7 — 41.15% 2.43
0 (PK) 58.85% 1.7 25.41% 3.94 15.74% 6.35
+0.5 84.26% 1.19 — 15.74% 6.35
+1.0 84.26% 1.19 11.63% 8.6 4.11% 24.32
+1.5 95.89% 1.04 — 4.11% 24.32
+2.0 95.89% 1.04 3.32% 30.16 0.8% 125.65

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.