Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
47.61%
Fair Odds 2.1
Draw
33.28%
Fair Odds 3.01
Away Win
19.11%
Fair Odds 5.23
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 19.61% Fair Odds 5.1

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.1 —
Draw 3.01 —
Away Win 5.23 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 19.61% 5.1
2 0-0 17.2% 5.81
3 1-1 12.16% 8.22
4 2-0 11.18% 8.94
5 0-1 10.67% 9.37
6 2-1 6.93% 14.43
7 3-0 4.25% 23.54
8 1-2 3.77% 26.53
9 0-2 3.31% 30.24
10 3-1 2.63% 37.97
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
17.2%
5.81
10.67%
9.37
3.31%
30.24
0.68%
146.33
0.11%
944.29
0.01%
7633.59
1
19.61%
5.1
12.16%
8.22
3.77%
26.53
0.78%
128.35
0.12%
827.81
0.01%
6666.67
2
11.18%
8.94
6.93%
14.43
2.15%
46.54
0.44%
225.17
0.07%
1453.49
0.01%
11764.71
3
4.25%
23.54
2.63%
37.97
0.82%
122.47
0.17%
592.77
0.03%
3816.79
0.0%
31250.0
4
1.21%
82.6
0.75%
133.21
0.23%
429.74
0.05%
2079.0
0.01%
13333.33
0.0%
111111.11
5
0.28%
362.32
0.17%
584.45
0.05%
1883.24
0.01%
9090.91
0.0%
58823.53
0.0%
500000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.12% · Fair: 829.19
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 68.02% 31.98%
1.5 31.56% 68.44%
2.5 10.78% 89.22%
3.5 2.88% 97.12%
4.5 0.63% 99.37%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 46.21% 53.79%
1.5 12.85% 87.15%
2.5 2.51% 97.49%
3.5 0.38% 99.62%
4.5 0.05% 99.95%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 17.20% 5.81
1 30.28% 3.30
2 26.65% 3.75
3 15.63% 6.40
4 6.88% 14.54
5+ 3.36% 29.78
Over 2.5 25.87% Under 2.5 74.13%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 47.61%
Draw 33.28%
Away Win 19.11%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 25.87%
Under 2.5 74.13%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 31.43%
No 68.57%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.83% 14.65 14.06% 7.11 79.12% 1.26
-1.5 20.88% 4.79 — 79.12% 1.26
-1.0 20.88% 4.79 27.41% 3.65 51.71% 1.93
-0.5 48.29% 2.07 — 51.71% 1.93
0 (PK) 48.29% 2.07 31.69% 3.16 20.02% 5.0
+0.5 79.98% 1.25 — 20.02% 5.0
+1.0 79.98% 1.25 14.91% 6.71 5.11% 19.57
+1.5 94.89% 1.05 — 5.11% 19.57
+2.0 94.89% 1.05 4.16% 24.05 0.95% 105.13

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.