Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
45.44%
Fair Odds 2.2
Draw
34.47%
Fair Odds 2.9
Away Win
20.1%
Fair Odds 4.98
Most Likely Score
1 - 0
Probability 19.74% Fair Odds 5.06

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.2 —
Draw 2.9 —
Away Win 4.98 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-0 19.74% 5.06
2 0-0 18.45% 5.42
3 1-1 12.24% 8.17
4 0-1 11.44% 8.74
5 2-0 10.56% 9.47
6 2-1 6.55% 15.27
7 1-2 3.79% 26.35
8 3-0 3.77% 26.54
9 0-2 3.55% 28.2
10 3-1 2.34% 42.81
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
18.45%
5.42
11.44%
8.74
3.55%
28.2
0.73%
136.44
0.11%
880.28
0.01%
7092.2
1
19.74%
5.06
12.24%
8.17
3.79%
26.35
0.78%
127.52
0.12%
822.37
0.02%
6622.52
2
10.56%
9.47
6.55%
15.27
2.03%
49.26
0.42%
238.32
0.07%
1538.46
0.01%
12345.68
3
3.77%
26.54
2.34%
42.81
0.72%
138.1
0.15%
668.45
0.02%
4310.34
0.0%
34482.76
4
1.01%
99.23
0.62%
160.05
0.19%
516.26
0.04%
2500.0
0.01%
16129.03
0.0%
125000.0
5
0.22%
463.61
0.13%
747.94
0.04%
2409.64
0.01%
11627.91
0.0%
76923.08
0.0%
500000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.09% · Fair: 1128.67
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 65.7% 34.3%
1.5 29.0% 71.0%
2.5 9.36% 90.64%
3.5 2.36% 97.64%
4.5 0.48% 99.52%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 46.21% 53.79%
1.5 12.85% 87.15%
2.5 2.51% 97.49%
3.5 0.38% 99.62%
4.5 0.05% 99.95%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 18.45% 5.42
1 31.18% 3.21
2 26.35% 3.80
3 14.84% 6.74
4 6.27% 15.94
5+ 2.90% 34.50
Over 2.5 24.01% Under 2.5 75.99%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 45.44%
Draw 34.47%
Away Win 20.10%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 24.01%
Under 2.5 75.99%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 30.36%
No 69.64%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.87% 17.02 13.1% 7.63 81.02% 1.23
-1.5 18.98% 5.27 — 81.02% 1.23
-1.0 18.98% 5.27 27.06% 3.7 53.97% 1.85
-0.5 46.03% 2.17 — 53.97% 1.85
0 (PK) 46.03% 2.17 32.88% 3.04 21.09% 4.74
+0.5 78.91% 1.27 — 21.09% 4.74
+1.0 78.91% 1.27 15.68% 6.38 5.41% 18.49
+1.5 94.59% 1.06 — 5.41% 18.49
+2.0 94.59% 1.06 4.4% 22.73 1.01% 99.02

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.