Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
87.87%
Fair Odds 1.14
Draw
9.05%
Fair Odds 11.06
Away Win
3.09%
Fair Odds 32.4
Most Likely Score
3 - 0
Probability 13.51% Fair Odds 7.4

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.14 —
Draw 11.06 —
Away Win 32.4 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 3-0 13.51% 7.4
2 2-0 12.66% 7.9
3 4-0 10.81% 9.25
4 1-0 7.92% 12.63
5 5-0 6.92% 14.46
6 3-1 6.75% 14.8
7 2-1 6.33% 15.79
8 4-1 5.4% 18.51
9 1-1 3.96% 25.27
10 6-0 3.69% 27.11
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.47%
40.43
1.24%
80.85
0.31%
323.42
0.05%
1941.75
0.01%
15625.0
0.0%
166666.67
1
7.92%
12.63
3.96%
25.27
0.99%
101.07
0.16%
606.43
0.02%
4854.37
0.0%
47619.05
2
12.66%
7.9
6.33%
15.79
1.58%
63.17
0.26%
379.08
0.03%
3030.3
0.0%
30303.03
3
13.51%
7.4
6.75%
14.8
1.69%
59.22
0.28%
355.37
0.04%
2840.91
0.0%
28571.43
4
10.81%
9.25
5.4%
18.51
1.35%
74.02
0.23%
444.05
0.03%
3558.72
0.0%
35714.29
5
6.92%
14.46
3.46%
28.92
0.86%
115.66
0.14%
693.96
0.02%
5555.56
0.0%
55555.56
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 10.5% · Fair: 9.53
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 95.87% 4.08%
1.5 82.83% 17.12%
2.5 61.96% 37.99%
3.5 39.7% 60.25%
4.5 21.89% 78.06%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 39.35% 60.65%
1.5 9.02% 90.98%
2.5 1.44% 98.56%
3.5 0.18% 99.82%
4.5 0.02% 99.98%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 2.47% 40.43
1 9.15% 10.93
2 16.93% 5.91
3 20.88% 4.79
4 19.32% 5.18
5+ 31.24% 3.20
Over 2.5 71.41% Under 2.5 28.54%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 87.87%
Draw 9.05%
Away Win 3.09%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 71.41%
Under 2.5 28.54%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 37.72%
No 62.28%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 51.42% 1.94 20.91% 4.78 27.62% 3.62
-1.5 72.33% 1.38 — 27.62% 3.62
-1.0 72.33% 1.38 16.17% 6.18 11.44% 8.74
-0.5 88.51% 1.13 — 11.44% 8.74
0 (PK) 88.51% 1.13 8.32% 12.02 3.12% 32.02
+0.5 96.83% 1.03 — 3.12% 32.02
+1.0 96.83% 1.03 2.53% 39.57 0.6% 167.78
+1.5 99.35% 1.01 — 0.6% 167.78
+2.0 99.35% 1.01 0.51% 195.85 0.09% 1170.67

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.