Previsões / Copa do Mundo 2026 / Espanha vs Bélgica

Espanha vs Bélgica

Group H
Espanha Espanha
Jul 10, 2026 - 19:00
2 1.83
1 0.87
Bélgica Bélgica

Betting Signal

Modelo diz
Espanha 58.7%
O mercado diz
Espanha 59.7%
Diferença
1.0 pp
Status
Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately

OddsGPT Interpretation

The betting market strongly prefers Espanha (59.7%).

Espanha — market direction supports the model lean.

Mercado vs Modelo

Espanha
58.7% vs 59.68%
-1.0 pp
Draw
25.3% vs 24.63%
+0.7 pp
Bélgica
16.0% vs 15.69%
+0.3 pp

Maior lacuna

Espanha -1.0 pp

O mercado está substancialmente mais otimista em relação a Espanha do que ao modelo.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

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Previsão de IA
Espanha 58.7%
Draw 25.3%
Bélgica 16.0%

Gerado a partir de simulação de Poisson ajustada por Elo. Não são probabilidades de casas de apostas.

Mostrar dados completos do modelo
Probabilidades de linhas Poisson
Linha Mais Menos
0.5 91.9% 8.1%
1.5 76.5% 23.5%
2.5 50.6% 49.4%
3.5 28.6% 71.4%
4.5 13.7% 86.3%
Expectativas do jogo
Mais de 2,5 gols
50.6%
Balanced
Menos de 2,5 gols
49.4%
Ambos marcam
50.1%
Balanced
Clean sheet provável
49.9%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS Yes 50.1% · No 49.9% — neither side dominates the BTTS split.

Placares mais prováveis
Placar Probabilidade
1-1 12.1%
2-0 11.3%
1-0 10.9%
2-1 9.8%
0-0 8.1%

Top Poisson cell: 1-1 at 12.1% (draw-type scoreline; exact-score variance remains high).

FAQ
How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

Fase de Partida: Finished

Ciclo de vida de decisão

Estágio atual: Awaiting CLV

  1. Predição gerada
  2. Mercado comparado
    Entrada Pendente
  3. Validação aprovada
  4. Fechamento gravado
    Fechando 1.63
  5. CLV avaliado
    CLV Pendente Awaiting CLV calculation
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Jogos Group H